Stephen Hawking, the theoretical physicist who was diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS or Lou Gehrig’s disease) at the age of 21 and given just a couple of years more to live, celebrated his 70th birthday yesterday. Wonderful! Prof. Hawking, of course, is the Cambridge University professor who amazed us with his explanations of the Big Bang, black holes and light cones in “A Brief History of Time”. But you know the latest chismis? When asked by the New Scientist magazine what he thought about most, sabi daw ng Prof. Hawking, “Women. They are a complete mystery!” Lagot siya sa ating friends at the Philippine Commission of Women. Just the same, Happy Birthday, Prof. Hawking, and thank you for showing us that indeed, the human spirit triumphs over adversities!

And did you know that typhoons used to be named only after women! Good that our meteorologists have since become more gender-sensitive and nowadays, typhoons could be called Ray, Dido, Egay, or Mark!

Unfortunately, while the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) cooperates fully in the provision of data to the NSCB, our meteorologists still have to thoroughly imbibe the culture of information sharing thru its website. Information has become the most important commodity of the knowledge-based economies during the Third Millennium and Article III, Section 7 of our 1987 Constitution entitles the citizenry access to information on matters of public concern. We therefore must learn to share data to optimize the return on investments in statistics. We are also glad that the Freedom of Information Act seems to be receiving now the priority attention it deserves. We at the NSCB used to think that we should charge fees for our statistical information. However, learning lessons from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, we are now promoting the concept that public appreciation for statistics and for statisticians is enhanced when statistical agencies and other data producers provide our stakeholders with easy access to data. Wouldn’t it be just wonderful if government agencies, as a matter of practice, and in adherence to the principles of transparency and accountability made all their relevant data accessible to the public?

Statistically Speaking has written about climate change and warned that the typhoons had been increasing in number, had become stronger and had become deadlier; that they came the strongest in the fourth quarter and the deadliest in November. We have been experiencing typhoons all our lives, but the change in weather patterns has caught us unprepared to deal with the consequences of our wanton degradation and depletion of our environment and natural resources. According to PAGASA4, the most recent scientific assessments have confirmed that the warming of the climate system is most likely due to human activities, including the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.

Last November 28 to December 9, 2011, the 2011 United Nations Climate Change Conference or the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 17) was held in Durban, South Africa. The conference agreed to a legally binding deal on how to cut emissions, which will be prepared by 2015, and to take effect in 2020. Agreements were also reached regarding the creation of a Green Climate Fund and how to distribute it to help poor countries adapt to climate change impacts.

Critics of the conference were quick to voice out that such an agreement is too late. They recalled that the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the global average surface temperature increased by 0.74°C (1906-2005) and for the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade was projected for a range of emission scenarios. Even if the concentration of all greenhouses gas and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of 0.1°C per decade would be expected.

Last Friday, the NSCB hosted a forum where Gov. Joey Sarte Salceda of Albay enlightened us about disaster preparedness, disaster mitigation, disaster response. He posited that since those who had less in life had more in risks, “ it is the primordial duty of society and its state and the civic duty of its elite and the markets they control to save the vulnerable from disasters, from climate change.” According to Gov. Salceda, climate change adaptation for all local government units is imperative. He informed us about the 115-strong Team Albay whose structural approach to managing disaster risk and vulnerability hinged on a risk-based assistance that offered no perverse incentives and stressed the importance of preserving the dignity of victims ensuring that they do not develop a mendicant mentality as help is given to them. Holding us captive with his passionate discourse on the subject, controlling our urge to use the bathroom after a heavy lunch.

Governor Salceda impressed us with the zero casualty record from major disasters that hit Albay from 1994 to 2010 except in 2006. He related how members of Team Albay spent their Christmas and New Year producing potable water and operating health stations for the victims of Sendong in Cagayan de Oro. We take our hats off to the Albay model of governance and we surely need the likes of Gov. Salceda to lead our country.

Meanwhile, what do other/latest typhoon-related statistics say?

From 1948 to 2011, the most number of tropical cyclones (TC) entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in 1993 with 32, followed by 30 in 1964, and 27 in 1971. (Tables 1 and 2)

By month, on the average, the most number of TCs come in July, followed by August, September, October and November. (Tables 1 and 2)

The least number of TCs enter the PAR during the first quarter of the year, particularly in March. If this historical fact holds true in 2012, we can have at least a temporary respite from the ravages of climate change. (Tables 1 and 2)

In 2010, only 11 TCs entered the PAR, same as in 1998, an El Niño year, posting the lowest TCs occurrence since 1948. (Tables 1 and 2)

However, in 2011, 19 TCs entered the PAR. The heaviest casualties in terms of loss of human lives resulted from Tropical Storm (TS) Sendong (international name: Washi) in December with 1257 deaths, 13,337 damaged houses and PhP 1.4 billion damage to properties; Typhoon (TY) Pedring (international name: Nesat) in September, that submerged most parts of Central Luzon particularly Bulacan with 85 deaths, 7,491 damaged houses and PhP15.6 billion damage to properties; and TS Juaning (international name: Nock-Ten) in July in Bicol with 77 deaths, including very sadly, the mother of Gov. Salceda, 11,196 damaged houses and PhP4.4 billion damage to properties. (Table 3).

Sendong is one of the deadliest tropical cyclones to have hit Mindanao since 1947. It caught the Mindanaoans by surprise, considering that the TCs that made landfall in Mindanao from 1945 to 2010 numbered only 35 during the last 65 years and only 6 during the last 15 years. (Table 4 and Figure 1).

However, just like Pedring and Quiel, it was not the hagupit or lakas ng hangin of Sendong that caused much of the destruction. It was the heavy rains that poured plus other factors, some man-made. According to PAGASA, Sendong dumped 142 millimeters of rainfall in just 12 hours as compared to the 1977 to 2000 climatological average of 105.8 mm of rainfall for the whole month of December as recorded in the Lumbia Airport Synoptic Station of PAGASA, Misamis Oriental or the 99.9 mm as recorded in the Cagayan de Oro Weather Station, in Misamis Oriental from 1971 to 2000 But what are the factors that aggravated the destruction. Could it be illegal logging? For sure, when heavy rainfall pours on a denuded mountainous area, it will be transformed into a superhighway with no speed limit to the water crashing anything on its path. How many more deaths will it take before the illegal loggers curtail their greed? (Tables 5 and 6).

Actually, neither Sendong nor the deadly Ondoy in 2009 was the wettest tropical cyclone that entered the PAR from 1951-2011⁸. The wettest decade occurred between 1971 and 1980 when 9 of the 18 wettest TCs occurred. This could very well be because of the 0.74°C increase in the global average surface temperature since experts say that increased atmospheric temperature causes greater water vapor content and leads to larger rainfall anomalies. Man has ravaged our forests. Man has degraded our environment. For too long. What could we expect? (Table 7).

On the average from 1971 to 2000, the climatological normals compiled by the PAGASA on amount of rainfall indicate that for the months of January to April, the highest rainfall values were recorded by stations in Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur; Surigao, Surigao del Norte; Catarman, Northern Samar; Infanta, Quezon; and Virac Radar, Catanduanes. On the other hand, very little rainfall is expected in Vigan, Ilocos Sur and in Laoag City, Ilocos Norte.

For the months of May to September, the highest average rainfall values were recorded by stations in Baguio City, Benguet; and in Iba, Zambales. Little rainfall values were monitored in Tagbilaran City, Bohol; and Dumaguete City, Negros Oriental.

For October to December, the highest rainfall values were recorded by Infanta, Quezon; and Daet, Camarines Norte. The little rainfall values monitored during the months of January to April in Vigan, Ilocos Sur and in Laoag City, Ilocos Norte are actually a continuation of the little rainfall values in those areas for the months of October to December.

When we make vacation our plans, therefore, these statistics should warn us what we can expect to happen and be prepared to carry our umbrellas in our luggage. (Table 8)

On a longer term basis, PAGASA has calculated the projected changes in mean temperature and in rainfall by selected provinces.

For the hot months of March, April and May, the highest changes in temperature are projected to occur in Pampanga, Zambales, Ilocos Norte, and Pangasinan during the period 2006-2035. During the period 2036-2065, the biggest changes will occur in Aklan, Northern Samar, Cebu, Iloilo, and Camarines Norte. For 2071-2100, it will be in Samar, Northern Samar, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Aklan, and Camarines Norte., Even the magic of medicine cannot sustain the youth of our generation during that period, but for those who expect to be alive then, you had better plan well where you want to build your houses. (Table 9)

And for the wettest months of June, July, and August, the biggest increment to the amount of rainfall is expected to happen in Albay, Camarines Norte, and Quezon during the period 2006-2035; in Eastern Samar, Albay, and Leyte during the period 2036-2065; and in North Cotabato, Agusan del Sur, and Agusan del Norte during the period 2071-2100. Obviously, Gov. Salceda with his Disaster Risk Reduction Program, is just preparing his constituents adequately for the future! (Table 10)

In terms of level of the changes in temperature and rainfall, PAGASA expects that all areas of the Philippines will get warmer especially during the summer months. Mean temperatures are expected to rise by 0.9o C to 1.1o C in 2020 and by 1.8 o C in 2050. Generally, reduction in rainfall is expected in most parts of the country during the summer months but rainfall increase is likely during the southwest monsoon season (June, July, August) until the transition season (September, October, November) in most areas of Luzon and Visayas, but there is generally decreasing trend in rainfall in Mindanao, especially by 2050.⁹ The young can probably handle these weird climate changes but not many of my friends.

As Governor Salceda had said, climate change adaptation is a must because climate change is unequivocally on us. But no one can stop my two-year old apo from continuing to plead, “Rain, Rain, go away, little Lorenz wants to play”. Poor Lorenz. The rains will just not go away, and the typhoons will continue to come our way.

Nonetheless, despite Sendong, and because of the Albay model, we have reason to be hopeful for a better 2012! Happy Three Kings to everyone!