MANILA, Philippines - The Philippine government has to exert more effort to ensure that structures comply with building codes to prevent massive damages and loss of lives should a strong earthquake hit Metro Manila, a renowned urban planner said Tuesday.

“I think nakapagbigay na po tayo ng more than 60 recommendations panahon pa ng nakaraang administrasyon at ng administrasyong ito, pero sinimulan na nila yung mga structural audits and mapping ng hazard areas, pero kulang po pa yun,” said architect and urban planner Felino “Jun” Palafox Jr.

He said the government should also review and update its building, structural, and zoning codes, as well as the land use and planning.

“Hindi pa ho na-adjust yan sa mga recent disasters,” he said.

He cited a study, the Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction made in 2004 by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), which said that low-rise buildings are most likely to collapse than high rise structures.

“Only 2% of high rise buildings would collapse and 40% of low rise building. Ating dahilan dyan, sa high rise building, mas ginagawa yung tamang desenyo, ginagawa yung geologic study, structure study, earthquake analysis, wind tunnel analysis. Pero yung mabababang gusali hindi masyadong ini-implement yata yung Building Code,” he explained.

Informal setters most vulnerable

Aside from the possible damage to structures, Palafox said the study also estimates more than 30,000 deaths, mostly informal settlers, if a quake with a magnitude 7.2 hits Metro Manila.

“Pagka-lumindol, ang pinaka-vulnerable yung mga informal settlers, urban poor areas. Kasi if we relate it back to Metro Manila again, doon sa Mayor's report if you remember, pag may earthquake magnitude 7.2, 30,000 people will be killed, then 18,000 more because of the fire after the earthquake,” he said.

For his part, Deputy Director Bart Bautista of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) echoed the same assessments made in the study.

“Yung highly vulnerable yung mga informal settlers kasi non-engineered structures nila. Usually, sila lang nagde-design at minsan sila nagko-construct na din so totally wala silang engineering design at di nagpa-follow sa Building Code,” Bautista said.

No emergency areas

Palafox also noted that most areas in the densely populated Metro Manila do not have the right of way for emergency vehicles, such as fire trucks and ambulances.

“Isa pa international standard, every resident should have one square meter of evacuation area. Data on population ng Metro Manila (ay)14 million, bawat komunidad should have at least 10 hectares of evacuation area. And, in that 10 hectares, may lugar for emergency clinic, emergency food station, emergency shelter, water station and a helipad. Wala po tayo niyan,” he said.

Palafox urged the public to always be prepared. “Bawat isa sa atin, dapat may dala palagi na whistle at saka flashlight at one bottle of water, you can survive."

Meanwhile, compared to Negros Oriental, Bautista said a 6.9 magnitude earthquake could have a serious impact in Metro Manila.

“Kasi marami tayong buildings na matataas, dense ang population, highly developed ang Metro Manila. Compared doon sa Negros, hindi pa masyadong developed kakaunti yung high rise concrete structures doon,” said Bautista.

Bautista added that the government is already taking steps to prepare for such eventualities.

“Recently, yung DPWH (Department of Public Works and Highways), may retrofitting na ginagawa--yung mga flyover, yung MRT (Metro Rail Transit)--tapos may mga ilang buildings na silang in-inspect, especially school buildings at I think mayroong recommendations na sila on how to retrofit those buildings,” he said.

However, Bautista said there is no existing technology yet to detect the exact day and time an earthquake would strike.

“Mostly long term forecasting ang ginagawa natin,” he said.

On Monday, a 6.9 magnitude earthquake hit the Negros-Cebu region, killing at least 15 people, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported.

Phivolcs said it has recorded 745 aftershocks as of 8:00 a.m. on Tuesday. With Umagang Kay Ganda, ABS-CBN News