MANILA, Philippines - Manila is one of the cities most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, along with Dhaka, Calcutta and Jakarta, according to a British firm specializing in risk analysis.

Maplecroft released on Wednesday a new Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) that looks into 193 countries' exposure to extreme weather events such as drought, cyclones, storm surges and wildfires which translate into water stress, loss of crops and land lost to the sea.

The Philippines has been rated "at extreme risk" from climate change in the CCVI, ranking 10th in the list of most vulnerable countries, following Haiti, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Sierra Leone, Madagascar, Cambodia, Mozambique, DR Congo and Malawi.

In a parallel analysis of major cities at risk, Maplecroft pointed to Manila, Jakarta Addis Ababa, Calcutta and the Bangladesh cities of Dhaka and Chittagong as being most exposed.

"Cities such as Manila, Jakarta and Calcutta are vital centers of economic growth in key emerging markets, but heat waves, flooding, water shortages and increasingly severe and frequent storm events may well increase as climate changes takes hold," said Charlie Beldon, principal environmental analyst at Maplecroft., in a statement.

"The impacts of this could have far reaching consequences, not only for local populations, but on business, national economies and on the balance sheets of investors around the world, particularly as the economic importance of these nations is set to dramatically increase," he added.

Maplecroft noted many of the countries and cities rated "extreme risk" are those with the fastest growing populations, such as Bangladesh (2nd), the Philippines (10th), Vietnam (23th), Indonesia (27th) and India (28th). 

The report added that population growth in these cities combine with poor government effectiveness, corruption, poverty and other socio-economic factors to increase the risks to its residents and business.

These cities' infrastructure, which already cannot cope at 2011 levels, will face even more struggles to adapt to large population increases and more frequent natural disasters in the future.

Manila most 'exposed' to floods, typhoons

The Maplecroft report noted Manila is extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of  "a combination of exposure to hazards, poor socio-economic factors and a low capacity to adapt."

Manila's population is expected to increase by 20% or 2.23 million between 2010 and 2020.

"It is particularly at risk of flooding and typhoon activity, having the highest exposure to these events out of the 20 growth cities," the report stated.

For instance, in July 2010, Typhoon Basyang (international name: Conson) hit near Manila, killing 146 and affecting over half a million people. Last month, the country was hit by Typhoons Pedring and Quiel that killed 102, and resulted in more than P9 billion in damaged infrastructure and agriculture.

"Events such as this could well increase in frequency and severity, which should make improvements to the adaptive capacity of the city a priority for the national government of the Philippines," the Maplecroft report said.

A third of humanity at risk

While a third of humanity, mostly in Africa and South Asia, face the biggest risks from climate change, rich nations in northern Europe will be least exposed, the Maplecroft report showed.

Of 30 nations identified in the new Maplecroft report as at "extreme" risk from climate change, two-thirds are in Africa and all are developing countries.

Africa is especially exposed to drought, severe flooding and wildfires, the report says.

"Many countries there are particularly vulnerable to even relatively low exposure to climate events," said Beldon.

Weak economies, inadequate healthcare and corrupt governance also leave little margin for absorbing climate impacts.

At the other end of the spectrum, Iceland, Finland, Ireland, Sweden and Estonia top the list of nations deemed to be least at risk.

With the exception of Israel and oil-rich Qatar and Bahrain, the 20 least vulnerable countries are in northern and central Europe.

China and the United States -- the world's No. 1 and No. 2 carbon emitters -- are in the "medium" and "low" risk categories, respectively.

Recent studies -- reviewed in a special report by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), due out next month -- point to strengthening evidence of links between global warming and extreme weather events.

Record droughts in Australia and Africa, floods in Pakistan and central America, and fires in Russia and the United States may all be fuelled in part by climate change, some experts say.

Current warming trends are on track to boost average global temperatures by 3.0 degrees. - with a report from Agence France Presse