I know “lucky” is not a word used with a casualty count of 40 — and counting. That figure, from 302nd Brigade chief, Col. Francisco Zosimo Patrimonio Jr. does not yet include La Libertad, another town near the epicenter of today’s Negros Oriental quake.

So far, the hardest hit area is Guihulngan City, a laidback community with the sea on one side and the mountains on the other. But that’s because the quake, which measured 6.9 in Negros Oriental, damaged roads and bridges leading to La Libertad. Patrimonio said only Navy boats can access that town. They weren’t able to send that many rescue teams by later afternoon. As night fell, some Bayan Patrollers were reporting the start of heavy rains there.

It’s bad. There are incessant aftershocks. Phivolcs says these could continue for a week or more. Because big quakes leave the surrounding plates unstable, some aftershocks can be strong.

With La Niña bringing in a cold front — and rain — there will be short-term misery. Unlike incidents of floods, where schools and churches on higher ground open their gates and doors to evacuees, one doesn’t quite know where to go for shelter in Negros Oriental. After all, everybody is scrutinizing homes and buildings for cracks. Aftershocks could also further weaken structures that already sustained earlier damage.

As bad as the situation seems now, however, it could have been worse.