MANILA, Philippines - The electronics industry has revised its 2010 exports forecast upward, this time to growth levels that could more than make up for last year’s global downturn-caused plunge.

From a 10-15% growth outlook, sales of the Philippines’ top export could rise by over 20% from year-ago levels based on a surge in orders recorded so far, Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines, Inc. (SEIPI) Chairman Arthur J. Young last week claimed.

"The last time, we said it was 10-15% growth for 2010. Now we’re saying 15-20% and it could go higher than that," Mr. Young said in a telephone interview on Friday after the group’s board meeting for the quarter.

"Personally, I think we can beat that [22.2% decline in 2009]," he added. "These numbers are conservative. The inclination is to go higher."

The forecast means sales could top $27.095 billion this year, surpassing that recorded in 2007 before the global economy nosedived. The rosy outlook is in step with analysts’ predictions regarding global demand for electronic components.

Information technology think tank Gartner predicts worldwide semiconductor revenue to grow by 19.9% in 2010 to $276 billion due to demand for personal computers and storage devices, public relations manager Sony Shetty said in an e-mail to BusinessWorld on Friday.

For the Philippine industry, demand so far has been especially strong for components used in wireless devices and solar-powered gadgets, Mr. Young said. Buyers have mostly come from China, Asia Pacific, India and South America, he added.

Mr. Young noted, however, that the country’s power supply problems and murmurs of a increase in minimum wages this year could threaten the upbeat forecast.

"We are very concerned about the lack of power and wage increases. We are concerned of this talk of minimum wage increases when companies are rehiring mode," he said. "Can we afford to hire more now?"

University of the Philippines economist Benjamin E. Diokno took note of other threats as well.

A rebound from the past years’ sales declines by 2010 is "a bit too optimistic", he said in a text message on Friday.

"With a weak and unsteady recovery [of the global economy] it is doubtful whether the demand for electronic products could be strong," he said.

"Also doubtful is whether the Philippines will be the electronics importers’ top choice for inputs given the existence of more competitive sources and the rising cost of the Philippine exports as the peso continues to appreciate," he added.

"Supply reliability [also] becomes a concern with intermittent power failures."