(Update) Jan exports plunge 41% over electronics slump
Exports plunged 41 percent to $2.49 billion in January from a year ago, the biggest annual contraction for any month on record, the National Statistics Office (NSO) said Tuesday.
The NSO said export receipts dropped to $2.49 billion from $2.67 billion in December, significantly lower than the $4.23-billion earnings registered in January 2008.
Electronics products, the country's main export, contracted 48.4 percent at $1.35 billion in January after falling 47.6 percent year-on-year in December. Electronics made up 54 percent of total export revenues for January.
Economists said the decline is already expected, especially with the trend present across the globe. "With global trade as a whole slumping, it is not difficult to see that the demand-end support for exports have all but crumbled and the Philippine peso will be of very little support on the margin," said economist Vishnu Varathan of Forecast Pte. in Singapore.
"What we are seeing is that the slump continues all across the region, and the drop is already expected. The issue now is what happens going forward?" said economic Simon Wong of Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong.
Exports to the country's top two export destinations--the United States and Japan--fell 33.6 percent and 39.7 percent during the first month of 2009, respectively. However, exports to Germany, its third biggest market, were up an annual 7.3 percent in January.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said it expects exports to contract by 6 to 8 percent this year, while imports are seen to decline from 8 to 10 percent.
Economists, however, see a bleaker outlook for the country's exports.
"For the year as a whole, we are expecting a double-digit decline in exports," said economist Edward Teather of UBS in Singapore.
"Inferring from the weakness in indicative US semi ratios, the outlook remains dire this year," said economist Radhika Rao of Ideaglobal in Singapore.
The electronics industry, meanwhile, said exports in their sector are likely to fall 8 to 10 percent this year after suffering an 8.31-percent decline in 2008.
The country supplies about 10 percent of the world's semiconductor manufacturing services, including mobile phone chips and microprocessors. Other key exports include garments and accessories, vehicle parts, coconut oil, tropical fruit, and wood furniture. - with Reuters, ABS-CBN News