MANILA, Philippines - The agriculture damage caused by the El Nino dry spell has risen to P8.4 billion, a Cabinet official said on Friday, exceeding estimates under a "moderate" scenario but tapering off from last month’s crop loss surge.

"We are still validating the reports but as of [Friday] the damage has already reached P8.4 billion," Acting Agriculture Secretary Bernie G. Fondevilla told reporters.

He said rice and corn farms were hit the most, particularly those in Region 2.

This is up from the P8 billion worth of verified damage as of March 2. That tally meant the goverment’s "moderate" El Nino scenario would have to be scrapped as the weather pattern is expected to last until June. The worst case damage estimate is P20 billion.

Mr. Fondevilla said it was possible the toll could hit P11 billion but stressed it won’t be much higher than that since the country is already in the harvest season.

"Right now, we are looking at other sectors that could also be affected," he said.

Agriculture economists, however, had other opinions.

Leonardo A. Gonzales, president of the STRIVE/SIKAP Foundation, said the damage could go up to P20 billion.

"The next planting season will be delayed because of lack of water but hopefully, the dry spell won’t last that long since certain areas are already experiencing rain," he added.

University of the Philippines economist Arsenio Balisacan said the agriculture sector could contract by 3-5% in the first quarter, noting that the P8.4 billion worth of damage was already "serious."

"This is going to get worse before it gets better, but I can’t say as to how much the damage can still go up," he said.

Mr. Fondevilla admitted that the latest damage tally could mean a first quarter contraction.

He also said the Agricultural department still had. to decide on whether additional rice imports were warranted.

"To date, the Agriculture department has yet to decide as to if there is a need for more rice imports on top of the 2.4 metric tons that will enter the country before the first half ends," Mr. Fondevilla said.

"I leave that to the interagency committee to decide. The damage report is not yet final," he said.