MANILA, Philippines--University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) Professor Dr. Bernardo Villegas, usually a very bullish economist, today admitted that a failure of elections this coming May would cut the country's economic growth by more than half, completely derailing a complete recovery from the global financial crisis.

At a media briefing this morning, Villegas said he was positive that growth in the first half of the year would hit as much as 5%, on a recovery of consumption demand amid a better global economic environment. But he pointed out that political instability in May could come crashing down on the second half of the year, resulting in 0% growth. He warned that investors would likely start turning their backs on the Philippines as an area for trade and expansion if the May 10 polls failed.

This, he said, would result in a drastic cut in growth prospects, from a bullish 6-7% for the year, given credible and smooth elections.

"The second half of the year can be as bullish as the first half as long as we have credible elections. But if a failure of elections occurs, growth will come down to 2.5% for the full year at worst case," Villegas explained.

He expressed confidence that the polls would be held smoothly, adding that many naysayers were merely "overreacting".

"We will have clean and successful elections, and by June 30 we will have a new president.  The imagination of some people are just so wired, they make trouble for themselves.  Yes there will be people trying to cheat, but there will be hundreds of thousands of us there watching over the polls," he said.

Just the same Villegas stresses that maintaining the 6-7% growth would be a challenge for the next administration, saying it would take 20 years of the same average level of growth to make a dent on increasing poverty in the Philippines. He called on the next president to be serious against corruption to achieve this goal.

"The results will not be relevant. Once you have credible elections, investors will give us the benefit of doubt that economic policies will be pursued.  But if the next president wants 7% growth in the next 6 years, he has to show, in his first years in office, that he is going to fight corruption will all his mind and strength," he said.