Philippine annual inflation probably fell to a one-year low in March, but a pick up in oil prices may dim the chances of a fourth consecutive rate cut by the central bank at its next meeting, a Reuters poll shows.

The median in the poll suggests the consumer price index in March climbed 6.7 percent from a year earlier, easing from 7.3 percent in February.

The median was near the high end of the central bank's 5.9-6.8 percent forecast and would be the lowest level since 6.4 percent in March 2008.

The fall in inflation in March and the central bank's cut this week in its expectations for 2009 average inflation supports the case for further rate cuts this year especially as the economy is weakening, economists said.

But a sharp rise in oil prices in March might give the central bank reason to pause at its April 16 review, they said.

"We think that the slight pick up in global energy prices and raw materials prices will maintain inflationary pressures for now," HSBC senior economist Frederic Neumann said. "The central bank might wish to hold monetary policy for the time being."

The average price of benchmark NYMEX crude futures rose more than 22 percent in March from February, though it was 54 percent below the average of prices in March 2008.

The Philippines central bank has cut its overnight borrowing rate by 125 basis points since December to 4.75 percent to support the economy, which has seen exports fall rapidly and remittances growth stall in the face of the global financial crisis.

Central banks in Taiwan, South Korea and Australia have decided to pause their flurry of rate cuts to let their economies absorb the policy moves taken so far.

Rather than cutting rates, Radhika Rao, economist at IDEAglobal, said the central bank might use other policy tools to boost the economy, such as reducing banks' reserve requirements and widening the peso rediscounting facility.

"Credit growth is slowing, though gradually, and we expect the central bank to ease liquidity conditions as much as possible to ensure sufficient credit growth availability to productive and export-related industries," Rao said.

The government expects economic growth to slow to between 3.7 percent and 4.4 percent this year from 4.6 percent in 2008, more optimistic than most forecasts by analysts and multinational development lenders.

The Asian Development Bank forecasts a 2.5 percent expansion in the Philippines economy this year while the International Monetary Fund expects growth of 2.25 percent.