RP in recession since 2008, group says
The Philippines has slipped into recession as early as last year, research group Ibon Foundation announced Tuesday, citing rising poverty and unemployment in the country.
For the first three months of 2009, the Philippines had a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.4 percent from 3.9 percent in the same period last year. Technically, a country enters into recession when it posts negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters.
Ibon said, however, that growth figures in themselves are poor indicators of economic development in the Philippines, as even positive growth rates here are accompanied by falling incomes, rising unemployment, increasing poverty, and deteriorating welfare.
"The country's recent experience shows how economic growth has become increasingly disconnected from the lives and welfare of the majority of Filipinos. For instance, GDP growth in 2007 hailed as the fastest in 30 years did not significantly reduce high unemployment or substantially improve incomes," Ibon added.
Citing statistics, Ibon said GDP growth has supposedly been rising steadily since 2001, yet the country's unemployment rate remained at a record high of over 11 percent in 2008.
"Ibon's latest quarterly survey in April 2009 had 7 out of 10 Filipinos rating themselves as poor," Ibon said.
'Mild' recession in Q2
Yesterday, Albay Gov. Joey Salceda said the Philippines is likely to enter into a mild recession as early as the second quarter this year, which can only be countervailed by pump-priming the economy through increased spending.
"We are experiencing significant downturn that will reach into the next quarter. My estimate is that, even including 60 percent increase in public construction, 1.4 percent in services, two percent in agriculture on the supply side, we will only reach 0.92 percent [GDP growth] in the second quarter," he told the ABS-CBN News Channel.
Salceda said the Philippines has technically entered into a recession when GDP drops below the population growth rate of 1.92 percent for two consecutive quarters.