Retailers remain upbeat amid the economic downturn, expecting to end the year with a profit on continued migrant worker remittances and support from a new tourism law.

Consumers have adjusted to the crisis, buying more wisely and cautiously and seeking value for their money, Philippine Retailers Association Chairman Jorge T. Mendiola said in opening remarks during the 18th National Retail Conference.

Spending remains propped up, he said, due to continued overseas Filipino worker (OFW) remittances, which hit $6.98 billion as of May according to the central bank.

The recently signed Tourism Act, he added, also provides opportunities not only to the travel industry but to the retail sector as well.

"As you know, tourism and retailing are closely allied and the Tourism Act will be a boon to both industries," Mr. Mendiola said, noting that the Tourism department has recorded four million tourist arrivals despite the global financial crisis and the swine flu scare.

After his speech, he said that first half growth was marginal but was optimistic of a high single-digit gains for the entire year.

"The first half of this year has been okay for most retailers, especially the food retailers," he said.

Dr. Cayetano Paderanga, Jr., an economist from the University of the Philippines, likewise gave a rosy outlook for the industry.

"In the end the activity in the malls depend on OFW migrants; there are new players in BPO (business process outsourcing) and tourism, but bulk of the demand would depend on OFW remittances," he said.

"It might be a good time to make a push in the coming months as people’s confidence recovers," he added.

Consumers were cutting back but have been spending again, Mr. Paderanga said.

He also noted that a slowdown in price increases could also boost the retail sector.

"The combination of lower prices and higher disposable income may allow the industry to bloom in the coming months of the year," he said.

Frederick D. Go, overall conference chairman, said things were looking up for the industry as it now had three legs to run on.

"I think the worst is over. Consumer sentiment was at its bottom 12 months ago. [Also] we didn’t have the three legs we are running on now: the OFW money, the BPO industry and the tourism sector. If you look back several years we didn’t have those," he said. — D. G. K. Carreon, BusinessWorld