MANILA - Mobile phone users in Southeast Asia are expected to grow by as much as 18.4% this year, or to 453.3 million subscribers from last year, said Frost & Sullivan on Wednesday.

In its Southeast Asia Wireless Outlook, Frost & Sullivan said by the close of 2014 mobile subscribers are expected to hit 606 million, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR), of 8% from 2009 to 2014.

On revenues, it said revenues are forecast to reach $36.2 billion by end-2014, at a CAGR of 4.2% from 2009-14. Last year revenues hit $28.3 billion.

Growth, it said, will be driven by a mix of subscriber net additions of consumers in the rural districts, as well as the increase in data usage and higher-end services brought on by 3G (third-generation) services.

“In saturated markets like Singapore and Malaysia with mobile penetration already at 131% and 97.8%, respectively, growth—although marginal—will largely be fueled by user migration to 3G, mobile broadband uptake and generally, the higher consumer appetite for mobile content and data services,” said Frost & Sullivan industry analyst Shaker Amin.

Meanwhile, growing markets like Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, with mobile penetration well below 75% and even lower fixed broadband penetration, are likely to see growth in new subscriber additions, he added.

He explained that users in the countries cited are predominantly low-ARPU (average revenue per user) prepaid subscribers. Mobile usage in these growing markets will continue to be dominated by voice and basic text messaging services.

“Although 3G will be making its entry into many of these markets, it will be some years still before 3G services become commonplace,” he added.

Only about 6% or 22.9 million of the region’s total mobile users last year were 3G subscribers.

The race to roll out 3G services in the hugely competitive growing markets, he said, however shows no signs of abating. Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam—each have no less than six mobile operators; Indonesia the most with 11. “The operators compete fiercely to enroll new subscribers, 3G will be the technology to eventually deliver broadband to the rural communities that are not likely to ever receive fixed broadband access,” said Amin.

In 2008, Southeast Asia accounted for approximately 21.5% of the total mobile users in the Asia-Pacific region.