Gov't may lower export, import growth forecasts

Posted at 09/02/2009 4:43 PM | Updated as of 09/02/2009 7:39 PM

MANILA - The sharp drop in global demand for Philippine goods for the past months has prompted the government to consider revising its full-year export growth forecast downward.

The government earlier projected a 13% to 15% drop in export earnings this year versus the 2.86% slide in 2008. In the 6 months to June, exports fell 32.8% to $17 billion.

"We have to revise the assumption to take into account weaker than anticipated performance of our trading partners," Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said in a congressional hearing on the proposed 2010 national budget.

For the month of June alone, exports dropped 24.7% to $3.41 billion, better than the 27% drop recorded in the previous month. Since December 2008, the country's exports have been declining at a range of 30% to 40%.

Meanwhile, Guinigundo said the government's import growth target is also unlikely to be reached, given the 31.1% drop for the past 6 months. At present, the government is expecting the decline in import earnings at 8% to 12%.

Just like exports, Philippine merchandise imports posted the lowest annual contraction in June since October last year. Imports fell 22.8% to $4.108 billion in the said month, better than the 24.3% drop recorded in May.


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