IMF ups 2009 inflation forecast for RP; supply-side pressures continue
MANILA - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its 2009 inflation forecast for the Philippines after consumer prices started to accelerate in the last 2 months.
The IMF now sees the country's average inflation this year at 3.1%, up from its original forecast of 2.8%.
Inflation started to pick up in September after hitting 2-decade lows in the earlier months due to increases in prices of food, beverage and tobacco.
In October, inflation continued to rise as back-to-back typhoons caused billions worth of damage to agriculture and livestock.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said inflation would likely come in at 2.4 to 3.3% in November, accelerating from 1.6% in October and 0.7% in September. Official November inflation data will be released early next month.
"The pick-up in inflation could be largely attributed to supply disruptions brought about by the recent typhoons and heavy rains, increases in utility rates and international crude," BSP governor Amando Tetangco said in a text message.
"Despite an uptick, November inflation falling in this range would still be consistent with a within-target inflation for 2009 and 2010," he said.
The BSP projects inflation to average 3.03% this year, and 3.43% in 2010.
The central bank, in a policy-setting meeting last month, kept its interest rates steady at record lows even as consumer prices were rising.
The IMF supports the move, saying that any monetary tightening should only be undertaken once economic recovery is fully in place.