Nov inflation seen at 6-mth high, rates steady

Posted at 11/30/2009 3:51 PM | Updated as of 11/30/2009 6:41 PM

MANILA - Philippine annual inflation likely jumped to a 6-month high in November due to higher food and fuel costs, but remained within the government's target, giving the central bank room to keep policy rates low, a Reuters poll showed.

The median forecast of 10 economists was for annual inflation to have risen to 2.9% in November, its highest since May when inflation was at 3.3%.

The median forecast is up from last month's 1.6%, but in line with the central bank's 2.4-3.3% estimate.

"We expect higher food prices due to the rough typhoon season to linger, which plus higher oil prices since mid-October should push up the CPI (consumer price index) for another month," said Simon Wong, an economist at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong.

"Nonetheless, once these temporary factors pass, we should see prices stabilise entering 2010."

Philippine consumer prices have started to creep higher since September due to waning base effects and higher oil prices.

But the central bank, which is targeting inflation of 2.5- 4.5% this year and 3.5-5.5% next year, has said the inflation outlook remains favourable, which would allow it to keep its key overnight borrowing rate a record low of 4%.

Analysts predict the first rate hike will come in the second quarter of 2010.


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