MANILA - About 48 million voters in the Philippines will choose a president, vice president, a dozen members of the upper house of Congress and more than 17,500 local government officials in next May's elections.

The next administration faces tough challenges due to falling revenue collections, a ballooning deficit and increasing joblessness on top of chronic problems such as security, corruption and weak infrastructure.

By the last day of the nomination process, about 60 people had applied for the post that President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo will vacate on June 30, 2010. The market is watching only four top viable candidates and how they plan to tackle the job.

Here are some scenarios on how the top four candidates would tackle the presidency:

• SEN BENIGNO "NOYNOY" AQUINO, LIBERAL PARTY

The son of former president Corazon "Cory" Aquino has surged ahead in opinion polls, campaigning on the need to remove corruption and introduce "real" political reforms.

Aquino has an economics degree but no experience as an economist. Though a congressman for nine years, and senator for nearly three years, his track record in promoting legislation is not impressive.

Since announcing his candidacy in September, Aquino has yet to lay down a clear platform on how to address the country's economic problems. The market is nervous about an Aquino administration because he has little executive or managerial experience.
Some fear his administration would become similar to his mother's government, which went into a cycle of booms and busts with no clear policy direction due to competing interest groups within her Cabinet.

Aquino has a very competent economic manager, Senator Manuel "Mar" Roxas, a former investment banker running as his vice president. Roxas is acceptable to the market, but the business sector is worried he is only one of the interest groups in Aquino's circle.

Critics worry Aquino will not run the country but the people around him will be, including his younger sister, movie and television personality Kris Aquino.

• SENATOR MANUEL "MANNY" VILLAR, NACIONALISTA PARTY

 The billionaire property developer-turned politician has consistently rated high in various opinion surveys, helped by heavy media exposure and constant out-of-town trips as well as alliance building with local politicians.

Villar's rags-to-riches story and business background made him an early favourite in Manila's slum communities and corporate boardrooms because of what many see as his grip on the country's economic ills.

But, some are concerned Villar may adopt protectionist policies due to his long experience in retail trade and property development. The property market is not open to foreigners.

Villar has headed both chambers of Congress in his nearly 18 years in politics, worrying some investors about potential populist policies. In his attempt to build and expand his alliance, he has flirted with leftists in Congress.

The market is also in the dark on his possible economic team, unlike the other candidates who have given a preview of what to expect from their administration.

• FORMER PRESIDENT JOSEPH "ERAP" ESTRADA

The former movie action hero is seeking a second chance to serve as president, hoping to vindicate himself after an army-backed popular uprising removed him from power in 2001. He has consistently scored among the top four top presidential candidates in various opinion polls, campaigning on the slogan "Erap para sa mahirap" (Erap is for the poor). The market is nervous of an Estrada return to power because of his administration's profligate public spending and stories of his midnight parties with gambling and drinking buddies.

Some analysts, however, believe Estrada may be best prepared to handle economic problems because he rose to the presidency at the time of the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s.

They also argue that Estrada made good choices of economic managers during his short 30 months in power and the same team would return to government, making him best positioned to run the economy on day one of his presidency.

But, the market fears not only his populist views but also potential changes in policies that have allowed the country's economy to register unprecedented growth in the last 34 months.

• FORMER DEFENSE CHIEF GILBERTO "GIBO" TEODORO

The youngest of the presidential candidates is seen by most analysts as the smartest. The Harvard-educated lawyer and three-term congressman fares the poorest in opinion polls and is relying on the pro-administration Lakas-Kampi-CMD coalition, the most dominant political network, to help him win the presidency.

The business sector looks at Teodoro as a market-friendly candidate. Although he has some managerial experience, he is still to be tested in running the country's economy.

Critics say a Teodoro presidency would only mean a continuation of the unpopular administration of President Arroyo, who is hounded by issues of corruption, rights abuses and election fraud in 2004 and 2007.

For the market, a Teodoro administration simply means continuity in economic policies. Analysts say the economy has become so immune to political noise that as long as policies remain market-friendly, investors will stay.

For market players, consistency, predictability and policy continuity are more important than personalities behind the government. Thus, Villar and Teodoro appear the most acceptable to them, followed by Aquino and Estrada.