Late last year, 14 Filipinos flew to Alberta, Canada to work as pipe fitters, a job that paid around $7,000 or P267,000 a month. Two weeks later, they were sent packing, not yet ready to go home, but left with no choice. Canada has been gripped with the economic meltdown, a ripple of the United States recession, and foreign workers, Filipinos included, are expectedly the first to go.

This is the scenario that the P330-billion economic stimulus package, parlayed by the Arroyo administration, aims to address. For this reason alone, both public and private sectors should pull out all the stops to make sure that it would actually bring results, Susan Ople, president of the Blas F. Ople Policy Center and Training Institute, said in a recent budget workshop.

The labor sector “would need a lot of help in deciphering” how the package will actually create jobs, she said.

The stimulus package has been debated over its necessity and effectiveness. Some critics, including Bayan Muna Rep. Teodoro Casiño, have questioned whether the stimulus budget will really reach P330 billion.

Economists have questioned the stimulus package’s viability and relevance. Former Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Felipe Medalla said he sees no need for it since the US recession would “have spillover effects only on the [Philippines’] export sector.” Generally speaking, the country is “relatively insulated from the crisis,” he said. 

But Ople stressed that problems in the exports sector will have devastating effects on labor. “From a macro point of view, it [economic crisis] is not evident, but at the household level, we are in dire straits,” she said.

Jobs slash

Ople quoted former Budget chief Benjamin Diokno as having said that the US economic crisis, presaged by the collapse of Lehman brothers in 2008, would weaken the economies of the top destinations of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs). 

She also shared Diokno’s view that the local export sector would have to ride out decreased demand from Japan, China, Netherlands, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea, countries that depend heavily on the US market.

“Weaker economies mean lower demand for Philippine products. Weaker export demand means more layoffs,” Diokno had said.

His dim forecast unraveled early this year. As of January 2009, the Department of Labor and Employment had recorded 3,759 displaced land-based overseas Filipino workers, 93 percent of whom came from Taiwan. Taiwan’s electronics, semi-conductor, and metal works industries have suffered huge setbacks.

Filipino OFWs have also been displaced in the following countries:

· 75 workers from Australia’s shipbuilding companies;
· 69 workers from United Kingdom’s garment sector;
· 45 workers from Macau’s service and construction industries;
· 20 workers from Korea’s electronics industry;
· 19 workers from Russia due to deferred construction projects.

Meanwhile, 16 Filipino workers in Brunei’s electronics and telecommunications sector have had to cope with diminished workloads.

On the other hand, around 261 rehired OFWs have had to stay longer in the Philippines as their departures have been put on hold. Among them are:

· 167 workers headed for Canada (construction, oil and gas industry);
· 85 workers headed for the United Arab Emirates (electronics and service industry);
· 5 are off to Palau (services sector);
· 4 are headed for Australia (construction).

Labor Secretary Marianito Roque previously reported that 5,400 OFWs have been retrenched, while 34,000 employees have lost their jobs.  

Show me the money

Arroyo’s economic stimulus package promises to arrest this by creating almost a million jobs.

Around 500,000 jobs would be for projects supervised by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH), whose budget was increased by the bicameral committee from P112.364 billion to P129.890 billion.

The Department of Agriculture (DA) needs 131,000 workers for the construction of farm-to-market roads (36,500 workers), irrigation projects (81,134 workers), organic fertilizer production (10,400 workers), and goat dispersal (3,645 workers).

Repairs of school buildings and classrooms will create 100,000 jobs. The Department of Education (DepEd), along with state universities and colleges, would fork the budget for this, although local government units are allowed to oversee the bidding process for the construction upon DepEd’s approval.

On the other hand, 111,536 "green" jobs are expected to be generated through the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR). More than 50,000 upland farmers are needed for DENR’s Upland Development Program, which deals with reforestation and agroforestry.

In addition, 59,111 people could earn P3,000 a month as forest guards under DENR’s Bantay Gubat project.

Over 20,000 jobs under the Out-of-School Youth Serving Towards Economic Resiliency (OYSTER) project are up for grabs. Among the jobs under OYSTER include identifying bicycle lanes and putting up solar-powered street lights.

There are also 6,000 temporary jobs available in the Department of Social Welfare and Development.

Missing funds

Sourcing the funds for the economic stimulus package is problematic, however. The P330-billion budget was put on the table not knowing where P100 billion would come from.

Out of the P330 billion, P160 billion comes from the incremental increase of budget for agencies this year, P40 billion from taxes, and P100 billion would be split between the private sector and government-owned and controlled corporations (GOCCs) such as the Social Security System, Landbank, Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP), and Government Service Insurance System.

No one from the private sector has come forward with concrete investments, however.

Ople said that they pressed private banks and government financial institutions to help fill up the shortfall in the stimulus package, but only Social Security System (SSS) President Romulo Neri responded.

“At this point, however, please be informed that the SSS has yet to make any formal commitment to any infrastructure projects given that their details have yet to be finalized,” he said. 

Without sure commitments, Ople said that the economic stimulus package's employment promises could be just talk. “It would be like the tail wagging the dog,” she said.

No impact?

A P10 billion economic stimulus fund (ESF) was also included by the bicameral committee in the proposed P1.415 trillion-budget for 2009.

One billion pesos in the ESF were set aside for training laid-off workers and assistance to small and medium enterprises.

Another one billion pesos would be used for skills training programs of Kabataang Pinoy under State Colleges and Universities and the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority. 

Five hundred million pesos, meanwhile, were allotted to the Talinong Pinoy progam or student loan assistance of the Commission on Higher Education and the Department of Science and Technology.

A bigger fund of P3 billion would be used for construction of school buildings, while another P2 billion would go to food production.

The DENR will put up P1 billion for its Bantay Kalikasan and Bantay Dagat projects, and an additional P70 million for the production of briquettes, an alternative fuel source for cooking.

Former Budget Secretary Emily Boncodin said the government is shortchanging the public since P10 billion is not enough to create a big impact on the lives of Filipinos, especially during an economic crisis.  

Filomeno Sta. Ana, coordinator of the civil society group Action for Economic Reforms, said he doubts whether the country could sustain a stimulus package.

He pointed out that the Philippines, given its poor track record in tax collection and tax reforms, lacks the necessary fiscal capacity. Government agencies are also resistant to accountability and transparency calls, which promote institutional paralysis.

 “Fiscal stimulus is necessary to create jobs,” Sta. Ana said, but in the end, it all boils down to governance.  “There would be no doubt about the fiscal stimulus program if we had a good government.”