Position of names on ballot could affect candidates' chances: expert

Posted at 03/11/2010 10:01 PM | Updated as of 03/12/2010 1:47 PM

MANILA, Philippines - When they first ran in 2007, members of the party list group United Transport Koalisyon (UTAK) thought of placing the numeral "1" before its name, hence its current name 1-UTAK. No deeper meaning behind it, a member says. It's just a strategy for them to be first in the alphabetical list of party list groups that voters will choose from during the elections.

True enough, they became first in the list that year. This year, however, party list groups whose names begin with "1" increased: 1 Ang Pamilya, 1-Aangat Tayo, and 1-Aani, to name a few. "We were shocked because of instead of being number 1, we moved down to number 9," says transport leader Zenaida Maranan, one of 1-UTAK's nominees for this year's polls.

Now that the system is automated and all candidates' names are printed on the official ballot, many are making a big deal out of being ahead in the list.

Big deal

But what's big deal, really? Science says one's position in a list affects one's chances of being chosen -- or voted for, in the case of elections.

Dr. Felix Muga, a mathematics professor at the Ateneo de Manila, cites Benford's law in statistics, which states that "in lists of numbers from many (but not all) real-life sources of data... the first digit 1 is almost one third of the time, and larger digits occur as the leading digit with lower and lower frequency..."

Thus, if a candidate is associated with the numeral 1 or is first on the list, he or she has 30 percent more chances of "occurring" or being chosen than others. Those close to his or her name have good but lesser chances.

"The effect is usually on the undecided voters. Their tendency is to go to the number one on the list first," Muga says.

Uncomfortable

This is why the Liberal Party (LP) is uncomfortable with the position of its bet, Sen. Noynoy Aquino on the list. Aquino is number 2, placed between the disqualified candidate Vetellano Acosta and Ang Kapatiran standard-bearer JC delos Reyes.

"It's biased against Noynoy Aquino," says LP campaign manager Butch Abad of the ballot's design. "For one, it still contains the name of Vetellano Acosta … Look at the slot for Manny Villar. He's by himself there."

The LP believes the ballot's design favors Villar, Aquino's closest rival, whose name is alone in one column in the section for presidential candidates.

The party has asked the Commission on Elections (Comelec) to redesign the ballot and remove Acosta. But the poll body said this is impossible, because it would mean reconfiguring the poll machines' software and printing millions of ballots all over again.

"Bong Revilla"

Curiously, reelectionist Sen. Bong Revilla's family name on the ballot is not just "Revilla" but "Bong Revilla," placing him among the first in the list. But his camp says this was not meant to place him ahead of others.

"The voters... have always known and identified him as Ramon B. Bong Revilla Jr. and not Ramon 'Bong' B. Revilla Jr.," his camp said in a statement. "In 2004, the surname Bong Revilla was used when he filed his certificate of candidacy, and the Supreme Court upheld the commission's decision by using Bong Revilla."

Random, Not alphabetical

Muga thinks that to level the playing field, names on the ballot should be randomly instead of alphabetically arranged. This is the way they do it in California, he says.

For the Comelec, however, there's too much and unnecessary ado about how names on the ballot are arranged.

"The position of the candidate on the ballot shouldn't be the determining factor of whether he will win or not," says Comelec Commissioner Gregorio Larrazabal. "You should give voters more credit than that."

In the end, the poll body says, it's how candidates campaign -- not where they are on the ballot -- that will decide their fate on May 10.


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19 comments

BE FAIR & IT'S TIME TO BACK THE TRUST OF THE PINOY

SA COMELEC:

ITO NA PO ANG TIME NA MAIPAKITA NINYO SA MASANG PINOY NA ANG COMELEC E ME KREDIBILIDAD NA AHENSYA NG GOBYERNO,

ITO NA PO ANG TIME NA MALINIS ANG PANGALAN NG COMELEC NA SINIRA NI HELLO GARCI NUNG 2004,

ITO NA PO ANG TIME NA ANG TIWALA NG MGA MAMBOBOTO AY MAKITA NILA NA ANG KANILANG IBINOTONG KANDIDATO AY YUNG UUPO NG ME LEGALIDAD, DI YUNG ME MGA HAKA-HAKA NA HINOCUS FOCUS ANG PAGKAKAUPO,

ITO NA PO ANG TIME NA MAPAGKAISA NINYO ANG MASANG PINOY, AT DI NA MAGKAHATI HATI PA,

ITO NA PO ANG TIME NA ALISN NINYO ANG ALINLANGAN NG BAWAT ISA AT MAALIS NA ANG MGA KULAY NG PULITIKA,

ITO NA PO ANG TIME NA MAGISING NA TAYONG MGA PILIPINO PARA SA KINABUKASAN NG ATING BANSA AT NG MASANG PINOY,

ITO NA PO ANG TIME NA WAG NA TAYONG MAGPALOKO KUNG KANI-KANINONG MAYAYAMAN NA PULITIKO NA PURO PANGAKO LANG,

ITO NA ANG TIME NA MAGKAISA NA TAYONG MGA PILIPINO PARA SA BANSANG PILIPINAS AT SA MGA SUSUNOD NA SALINLAHI.

HOY GISING!!!

sakamaymo

M."Bi" Villar to Noynoy: "Magsisisi ka!"

One night, M.”Bi” Villar visits the home of his rival Noynoy.

M.”Bi”: Noy, baka naman pwede kang umatras sa halalan. Babayaran ko lahat ng utang nyo sa banko para sa Hacienda Luisita at lahat ng gastos mo sa kampanya. (Noy, perhaps you can retract your bid for the elections. I will pay for all your Hacienda Luisita debts and all of your campaign expenses.)

But suddenly Gay Gibo appears again out of nowhere like the Flash.

G.G. (touting): I heard that! I’m a witness to that!

Noy: Calm down cousin. Let him speak.

M.”Bi”: Alam ko naman na ayaw mo talaga tumakbo. Napilitan ka lang. Bakit mo pa pinapahirapan ang sarili mo? Dapat pabayaan mo na lang ang halalan para sa mga talagang gustong tumakbo. (I know that you really don’t want to run. You were just forced into it. Why are you making it so hard on yourself? You should just leave the elections to those who really want to run.)

Noy: There comes a time when you realize that you finally have to do it even if it seems that there is no hope.

M.”Bi”: Ano’ng ibig mong sabihin? Ang labo mo naman. (What do you mean? You’re confusing me.)

Noy: Why would Filipinos vote for me? If ever they do, it would be because of a temporary emotional episode, not because they really thought about it. Filipinos are very emotional. They’re like girls. They love feminine things like marriage, family, children and relationships. I don’t have any of that. Well, actually, I have a little of it, like my cousin here. But you see, in order for the country to be better off, they have to think less about their emotions and more about reason. I had doubts that it could be done in this country, but perhaps, there is some hope.

G.G: You mean they have to be a man like me?

Noy: No. You love the military. No offense, but military personnel are full of desires, known and hidden. Soldiers all sleep in the same room, bathe in the same shower room together and live by esprit de corps. Their uniform and their guns are their security blankets. Without it, they are all fearful like Cowardly Lions. They always want more, like mutineers, and they have great difficulty in controlling their desires. If they were all locked up in a prison cell together, who knows what they would do to each other’s rear ends.

M.”Bi”: Ang ibig mong sabihin kailangan nila maging tunay na lalaki tulad ko. Kaya dapat ako ang maging presidente. (What you mean is that they have to be real men like me. That’s why I have to be the president.)

Noy: Unfortunately not. You love children. You love your family. You love too much. What if someone killed your wife, would you kill them back in return? What if you see hungry children? Would you steal in order to feed them? What if the military attacked your hometown, would you organize a rebel army like the Abu Sayaf or the Taliban? Terrorists love too much. That’s why they are the way they are…China has a one-child policy. Do you think people here can have only one child per family? Singapore restricts government to academics. Do you think the Filipino’s love for movie-star politicians will cease? People suffer because of too much love, just as they suffer from too many desires.

M.”Bi”: Ano’ng pinapagsabi mo! Baliw ka talaga! (What are you saying? You’re really crazy!)

But Gay Gibo stands up and slaps M.”Bi” on the face.

G.G (furious): Don’t say that! He’s my cousin!

But M.”Bi” teary-eyed stands up and leaves.

M.”Bi”: Babalikan kita! Mag-sisisi ka! (I’ll get back at you! You’ll regret it!)

And so ends the tale of the ego versus the superego and id. The vicious cycle of these elements perpetually continues. On occasion, a strong ego produces peace and stability, but as the seasons change, the ego is soon dismounted by the id or superego.

-------------------------------------
http://syncmyworld.blogspot.com
http://freeasean.tripod.com
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Rodney St.Michael http://freeasean.tripod.com http://syncmyworld.blogspot.com http://myconnected.webs.com

UNFAIR

Simple lang naman ang tanong UNFAIR ba o hindi ??? yun lang naman
ang dapat sagutin eh... obuse namn ciguro diba ,, Grabe talaga ang pulitika dito sa atin ,, ang comelec parang halata na biase kay C5 at tiyaga ...

Honestly di ko talaga gusto yang si Money ,, Eh padaanan ba naman
ng kalsada lahat ng Village niya eh Pera ng pilipino ang ginamit nya ah... napakaraming naghihirap sa pilipinas sana dun na lang ginastos
nakinabang siya talaga ng husto... grabe.!!! ok lang sana kung pera nya ang ginamit nya para ipagawa ang c5 at daang hari eh hindi eh..

Sa mga maka villar diyan dumaan kayo don para malaman nyo kung gaano karaming village nya ang dinaan, para sa pansarili niyang interes...

sa mga Pilipino pls wag kayong padadala sa bilyones niya...

Secondly i would like to give credit to Abs-CBN kasi pansin ko ung effort nila sa pagbbalita na maging fair ... di tulad nang GMA 7 kasi pansin ko na pinapaoran nila si villar ,, bukod kay villar pabor din sila masyado sa LOTTO gawin ba namang headline lagi ang lotto e di parang tinuturuan tayong magsugal... may programa pa silang bago Pepito manaloto ,,, grabe talaga kumikita ba kayo diyan.. grabe namn ang dedikasyon ng GMA sa LOTTO.. ayaw ni Bishop ng ganyan...

Salamat po..


Give the voters some credit

Its a little too sad that most of the candidates, and now quite obviously the LP members, think that their candidates won't be voted for just because they're number 2 on the ballot. Give the voters a little more credit. I mean, hell! Kung talagang bobotohin ka ng tao, hahanapin at hahanapin ang pangalan mo sa balota kahit ikaw pa ang sa pinaka likod nito.

Why can't you just rely on your good selves when you campaign, ika nga? Unless wala naman talaga kayong good na ipagmalaki. Yung tanging kapital lang ng marami, ay kung bakit di dapat botohin ang kalaban. Bakit hindi niyo kumbinsihin ang tao instead, kung ano ang kaya niyong gawin kaya kayo dapat iboto.

Medyo may kasalanan din naman ang COMELEC siguro kasi di nila inaktohan kaagad lahat ng disqualification cases. But to give in to the demands of LP na tanggalin ang pangalan ni Acosta para naman magiging number 1 si Aquino...isn't that also a form of discrimination too? I mean, let us not fault both Ninoy for having a family name that starts with A, and Villar too that starts with V. Di naman nila kasalanan na ganun nga ang family name nila di ba.?

Parang di naman tama na gagastos pa ang COMELEC ng sangkatutak para lang na tanggalin ang ACOSTA sa lista. Tandaan niyo, pera din naman ng pilipino ang ginamit sa pag imprenta ng mga balota. Ngayon malay natin next month, may na disqualify na naman. Mag iimprenta din ba tayo ulit ng bago?


UNFAIR

Kahit anong paliwanag ang gawin ninyo obuse na advantage para kay Money Villar ang posisyon ng pangalan nya... tangapin na natin, papayag ba si C5 at Tyaga na nakapag-asawa ng Mayaman ,na palit sila ng pwesto ni pareng NOYNOY Ko ??? di ba hindi... Kaya nga pinatakbo si Acosta para hindi ma-una si Aquino sa listahan eh obuse naman diba ... ganyan ang pulitika sa atin.. Mga kababayan di natin dapat ipagbili ang ating boto sa Bilyones ni Money Villar...

Salamat po....


UNFAIR

Kahit anong paliwanag ang gawin ninyo obuse na advantage para kay Money Villar ang posisyon ng pangalan nya... tangapin na natin, papayag ba si C5 at Tyaga na nakapag-asawa ng Mayaman ,na palit sila ng pwesto ni pareng NOYNOY Ko ??? di ba hindi... Kaya nga pinatakbo si Acosta para hindi ma-una si Aquino sa listahan eh obuse naman diba ... ganyan ang pulitika sa atin.. Mga kababayan di natin dapat ipagbili ang ating boto sa Bilyones ni Money Villar...

Salamat po....


may epekto nga ba?

3

sa araw ng eleksyon, malamang tinanong ka na ng mga taong nakapaligid sayo, nanay mo, tatay mo, kapatid mo, kapit bahay mo, kaklase mo, kalaro mo sa psp, kainuman mo, textmate mo, ka-facebook mo, kung sino ang iboboto mong presidente ng pilipinas, at kung humaba pa ang kwentuhan nyo pati bise presidente mo. kaya hindi na makakaapekto yang posisyon sa listahan.


Poor Regard for Voters

It is typical hacendero attitude to look down upon ordinary citizens whom they believe are incapable of selecting the right candidate on a ballot. All this angst and anxiety over ballot positioning of names reveals a condescending view of voters. If a voter truly believes in his/her chosen candidate it does not matter where the name is positioned. Any voter who can read or write even at the level of a young grade-schooler can surely recognize a candidate's name and choose it accordingly. Now that there is no need to write candidates' names, it is far more convenient for a voter who has minimal schooling.

In the case of the Liberal Party their complaints about the ballot already borders on paranoia. They typically grumble about any and all issues against the administration as part of their campaign and this shows how little they can sell of themselves. If they cannot live with the system then they should not even contend at all in this election. They will not be missed.


@dluzon

5

vrynz got the facts straight man, don't tell him to shut up.

Nice post vrynz.

*** Ang pagsilbi sa bayan ay hindi dapat katamaran. Bayan dapat ang inuuna. Kalimutan muna ang pag-endorso sa kaibigan o pagbili ng mamahaling sasakyan. Nangako ka sa bayan. Tuparin mo. ***

Aquino For President

LABAN



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