The Commission on Elections on Friday said commercials of possible presidential candidates in the 2010 elections are not a form of early campaigning but are meant to gauge voters' preferences ahead of next year's polls.

Comelec Chairman Jose Melo said the commercials are meant to raise awareness of the politicians among the public. He also said candidates for the 2010 polls are only allowed to campaign three months before the elections.

He said violators of Comelec's rules and regulations will be sanctioned.

A Pulse Asia survey earlier showed Filipinos remain undecided on their presidential candidate for 2010 but seem to be clear—for now—about their vice-presidential and top senatorial bets.

Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia chief research fellow, said in a press statement the results of the February 2009 Ulat ng Bayan national survey conducted from February 2 to 15, 2009, indicate that if elections were held today, it would be a toss-up among the top aspirants.

“No clear winner would emerge in the presidential race if the May 2010 elections were held today. If the May 2010 elections were conducted now, it would be a very close race, with four probable candidates enjoying nearly the same overall voter preferences,” Tabunda said.

The top candidates as of now, based on the survey, are Vice President Noli de Castro (19 percent), Sen. Francis Escudero (17 percent), former President Joseph Estrada (16 percent), and Sen. Manuel  Villar Jr. (15 percent).

Sen. Loren Legarda is at fifth place, with 12 percent of voters’ preference.

Others included in the survey on presidential candidates are Sens. Manuel Roxas II (8 percent) and Panfilo Lacson (6 percent), Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay (2 percent), and Metropolitan Manila Development Authority Chairman Bayani Fernando (1 percent).

'RP polls in 2010 will be close'

The Philippine presidential elections next year will be one of the closest fought in history and will be won by the candidate who has the biggest campaign budget and ground-level network, analysts said on Thursday.
 
About a half-dozen candidates are expected to be in the fray for the May 2010 elections to replace President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and lead the Southeast Asian nation for the next six years.

"This is going to be one of the closest political contests in Philippine history," Earl Parreño, an analyst from the Institute for Political and Electoral Reforms, told Reuters.

"Based on initial public opinion polls, we don't really see any runaway candidate. Next year's contest might be decided by less than one million votes (out of a 40-million electorate) so the candidate with vast resources and network would really have a clear edge."

Analysts say a good campaign could cost 3-4 billion pesos ($60-80 million), a huge sum in the Philippines, and a loyal network will be essential for a candidate looking to win.

"Parties do not really matter, because at the end of the day politicians will choose the one with the biggest chance," said political analyst Antonio Gatmaitan.

Local politicians, from governors down to mayors, were expected to cross party lines and loyalties to support the candidate perceived to have the highest chance to win, he said.

"The candidate is the party," he said.

By the end of this year, perhaps only four serious candidates will be left, analysts said.

Two-way VP race between Escudero, Legarda

The Pulse Asia survey results showed that the “vice-presidential race continues to be a two-way contest between Sens. Francis Escudero and Loren Legarda,” with Escudero currently enjoying the vote of 26 percent of Filipinos, or five percentage points higher than in October 2008, and Legarda with 22 percent.

Among the possible vice-presidential candidates included in the survey, the only other personality with a double-digit voter preference is de Castro, with 14 percent.

The other probable candidates included in the vice-presidential probe register-voter preferences of 8 percent or less—Sens. Jinggoy Estrada and Francis Pangilinan (8 percent), Binay and Batangas Gov. Vilma Santos (6 percent), Sen. Ramon Revilla Jr. (5 percent), former defense secretary Renato de Villa and former senator  Sergio Osmeña III (both at 1 percent).

On possible senatorial bets, Tabunda said out of the 65 personalities included in the poll, “16 have a statistical chance of winning if the May 2010 elections were held today,” led by Senator Estrada, with an overall voter preference of 52.8 percent, followed by Sens. Pia Cayetano and Manuel Roxas II, both with 48.8 percent, and Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago, with 47 percent.

Others with a statistical chance of victory, for now, are Sen. Franklin Drilon (42.7) percent, Sen. Jamby Madrigal (38.8 percent), Sen. Ramon Revilla Jr. (37.8) percent, Sen. Aquilino Pimentel Jr. (36.1 percent), Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ralph Recto (35.5 percent) and former senator Sergio Osmeña III (33.8 percent).

Rounding off the top 16 are Optical Media Board Chairman Edu Manzano (33.4 percent); Dangerous Drugs Board Chairman Vicente Sotto III (31.2 percent); broadcast journalist Korina Sanchez (28 percent); Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (27.6 percent); Binay (27.2 percent); and Sen. Richard Gordon (26.9 percent).

Tabunda said that among those included in the senatorial survey, Manzano enjoyed a “significant improvement” in overall voter preference, gaining 19.6 percentage points from October 2008 to February 2009.

She said the only other personality who registered a higher voter preference this quarter compared with October 2008 is Senator Estrada, with an increase of 7.7 percentage points.

The survey results also showed that 65 percent of Filipinos “are convinced the May 2010 elections will be held as scheduled and believe that there will be much trouble in the country if the elections are not held,” while 51 percent think that the postponement of the polls, as scheduled, “will cause much trouble in the country.” With Reuters, Business Mirror