Aquino takes double-digit lead over Villar: SWS
MANILA, Philippines - Liberal Party standard-bearer Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has gained a double-digit lead over his fiercest rival, Nacionalista Party presidential bet Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr., in the latest BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations (SWS) Pre-Election Survey.
The April 16 to 19 nationwide poll, conducted three weeks before the May 10 elections, saw Aquino gaining a point to 38% compared to a two-point drop to 26% for the Nacionalista Party’s Mr. Villar.
The lead between the two opened up to 12 points from nine previously in the BW-SWS survey of March 19-22.
Six percent of the respondents were classed as “undecided/others” -- these included votes for disqualified bet Vetellano “Dodong” S. Acosta of the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan and responses that could not be properly read.
As in two earlier surveys, the respondents were asked to fill out ballots. The SWS polled 2,400 registered voters, divided into random samples of 300 for Metro Manila, 900 in the Balance of Luzon, and 600 each in the Visayas and Mindanao. The error margins used were ±2% for national percentages, ±6% for Metro Manila, ±3% for the rest of Luzon, and ±4% for the Visayas and Mindanao.
The question was: “Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang presidente, bise-presidente, mga senador at party list ng Pilipinas? Narito ang lista-han ng mga kandidato. Paki shade o itiman po ang naaangkop na oval katabi ng pangalan ng taong pina-kamalamang ninyong iboboto. (If the elections were held today, whom would you most probably vote for as president, vice-president, senator, and party list of the Philippines? Here is a list of candidates. Please shade the oval beside the name of the persons you would most likely vote for.)
Former President Joseph “Erap” M. Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino remained third with a two-point drop to 17%, while administration bet Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro, Jr. of the Lakas-NUCD picked up three points during the month to 9%, still a distant fourth.
Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon -- who last week filed suit against the SWS and rival polling firm Pulse Asia over their presidential surveys -- lost a point to share fifth place, at 2% each, with evangelist Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” C. Villanueva, the Bangon Pilipinas candidate.
Support for the remaining three presidentiables -- independents Sen. Ana Consuelo “Jamby” A.S. Madrigal and Jesus Nicanor “Nick” P. Perlas, and Ang Kapatiran’s John Carlos “JC” G. De Los Reyes -- basically stayed unchanged at less than half a percent each, although Ms. Madrigal is now sixth, from last previously, at 0.3%. Messrs. Perlas and De Los Reyes both scored 0.2%.
Taking into account a March 28-30 SWS survey commissioned by San Juan Rep. Ronaldo Zamora, Mr. Aquino’s score was also up a point while Mr. Villar’s loss was a slightly steeper three points. Mr. Estrada’ score was unchanged while Mr. Teodoro was up a point. Both Messrs. Gordon and Villar stayed steady, while the changes among Ms. Madrigal and Messrs. De Los Reyes and Perlas were a tenth to two-tenths of a percentage point.
The April 16-19 BW-SWS survey showed Mr. Aquino the frontrunner in terms of geographical area and socioeconomic classes. (The demographic details of the March 28-30 poll commissioned by Mr. Zamora remain under embargo.)
The LP candidate’s one-point improvement, said the SWS, was due to gains of two points in the Balance of Luzon (to 37%) and one point in Mindanao (33%) that were offset by a four-point loss in Metro Manila (to 35%) and a steady score in the Visayas (46%).
Mr. Villar’s two-point drop, meanwhile, was attributed to a four-point gain in Mindanao (to 31%) being offset by losses of two points in Metro Manila (18%) and five points each in the rest of Luzon (25%) and the Visayas (25%).
Mr. Estrada’s identical two-point fall was traced to losses in all four areas: one-point drops in both the Balance of Luzon (17%) and the Visayas (7%), two points in Metro Manila (25%), and four in Mindanao (22%).
Mr. Teodoro’s gains, meanwhile, came via a five-point improvement in Metro Manila (10%), an extra four points each in the Balance of Luzon (9%) and the Visayas (11%), and a point gain in Mindanao (8%).
Mr. Villanueva gained a point in the Visayas (2%), lost one in Metro Manila (3%), and stayed steady in the Balance of Luzon (3%) and the Mindanao (1%).
Mr. Gordon lost two points in the Balance of Luzon (2%) and one point each in the Visayas (1%) and Mindanao (0.4%), but stayed steady in Metro Manila (2%).
“The vote percentages of Madrigal, Perlas and De Los Reyes across major study areas hardly changed from March 19-22,” the SWS said.
By socioeconomic class, Mr. Aquino gained eight points (53%), Mr. Villar gained five (22%), Mr. Gordon gained one (3%), Mr. Villanueva stayed steady (3%), Mr. Teodoro lost one (11%), and Mr. Estrada dropped by five (6%) in the ABC category. As a result Mr. Aquino’s lead over Mr. Villar widened to 31 points.
Among the class D or masa, the gap between the two frontrunners widened to 13 by virtue of Messrs. Aquino and Villanueva staying steady (38% and 2%, respectively), Mr. Gordon dropping one (2%), Messrs. Villar and Estrada losing two points each (25% and 16%, respectively), and Mr. Teodoro gaining four (10%).
In class E the gap narrowed to just a point: Messrs. Estrada and Teodoro gained two each (23% and 6%, respectively), Mr. Aquino lost one (32%), Mr. Villar was steady (31%), Mr. Villanueva lost two (1%), and Mr. Gordon (0.1%) fell by three points.
Again, the SWS said the scores for the remaining candidates hardly changed.
Sought for comment, Aquino spokesman Edwin Lacierda said in a telephone interview: “The Filipino people has identified the issue of character, and they think Noynoy is the best person to lead the country. The anti-corruption sentiment is resonating and Villar failed to address issues surrounding him. We hope that we will be able to convince more people in the upcoming surveys with our good news of anti-corruption and delivery of basic services.”
NP senatorial bet Gilbert C. Remulla, who also acts as Mr. Villar’s spokesperson, said a lot of things had taken place since the survey was conducted. The party, he said, believes that Mr. Aquino’s lead has gone back to the single-digit level with two weeks before the national elections.
“We recognize that it is an uphill battle but ... a lot has happened and a lot will still happen. By no measure is this a sure win by any party. We have suffered continued attacks by both contenders and we are wondering why the concentration is on us, the number two, and not on the number one. Despite all the attacks, we are still very much in the running and that our supporters’ resolve has only strengthened further,” Mr. Remulla said.
Margaux M. Salcedo, Mr. Estrada’s spokesperson, said: “It’s not what we were shooting for but at least the solid base has stayed. We will just have to triple time to the finish line.”
Lawyer Mike Toledo, Mr. Teodoro’s spokesman, received the improvement as good news but said the party would rather not depend on surveys.
“We welcome any rise in the ratings of Gibo as shown by SWS and other polling firms. But as far as we are concerned, what is important to us is the kind of support that we are getting from the ground,” he said. - graphics by Lala Rimando, abs-cbnnews.com/Newsbreak
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As to whether or not we
As to whether or not we should take the surveys seriously, there are two school of thoughts involved. If the surveys are being conducted by the workers or volunteers of a company such as the SWS, PULSE ASIA and others, ALONE, on their own whims and caprices, then the surveys should NOT be taken seriously because the survey results would be bias, injustice and/or dubious. Especially, now, at the time, when our country, Philippines, is tagged as the most corrupt country in the world. We don’t take chances even when it comes to the conduct of surveys as the manner and methods used are prone to corruption. Remember, corruption is prevalent in our country. At any rate, on the other hand, if the surveys are being conducted by the workers or volunteers of such SWS, PULSE ASIA and other companies in the presence of witnesses coming from the different political parties of VILLAR, ERAP, GIBO, NOYNOY, GORDON, BRO. ED VILLANUEVA, PERLAS, etc., , and that after the surveys , these witnesses would sign or affix their signature in the said surveys, then the survey results are credible, clean and honest because the same are NOT tainted with bias, injustice, and corruption. In this regard, the survey results should be taken seriously. Now, the only issue left to be resolved, at this juncture, is where to start to conduct the surveys. In what area or place the surveys should be conducted first in the presence of such witnesses. For example, if the survey is conducted in Las Pinas, naturally, the results would be in favor of Sen. Villar. If in Olongapo city, Gordon would prevail. In Tarlac, Noynoy. In San Miguel, Bulacan, Bro. Ed Villanueva. In San Juan, Erap would prevail. In Tarlac City, Gibo would prevail. In other words, the decision in conducting the surveys must based among the agreement or consensus of the workers/volunteers, and the representatives/witnesses involved.....
After...
Kimiko, I can understand your views, it's an endless debate. You are just just as passionate as anyone else to their chosen candidate. I am pro Noynoy period, whatever the argument is, nothing can change that.The chemicals in our brain works differently that's why maybe we dont agree. But at the end of the day, we are still a bit lucky that we have an election, not everyone in this world has the same privilage.
Assuming that the election were held fair and square.If Noynoy loses, it's fine with me. If he wins, fine too. Whoever gets the presidency, congratulation and goodluck to him.
What about you? What's your stand if your candidate lost?
Thanks and goodluck Philippines...
Let's not settle for Noynoy's mediocrity
Noynoy Aquino. He has a degree of Economics from Ateneo De Manila University. It's a great school known for its graduates who went on to become great people. But Noynoy was not one of its great students. He wasn't even a student leader in his time. Noynoy went on to sales and marketing for two great companies: Nike Philippines and Mondragon Int'l. Sales and marketing, and for that you went to Ateneo? Those were the only jobs he held that he got based on his resume and not based on his parent's name. Because after those jobs, he went on to work for his uncle's company and eventually their family's sugar company at Hacienda Luisita. Even in private life, he used his family connections to earn a living.
He served three terms in Congress representing Tarlac, his family's district and for which he had great chances of winning because it is Aquino/Cojuangco country after all. People would be surprised to know that at one point he was Deputy Speaker, because he was barely visible, he barely talked and he barely sponsored bills. In effect, he was a forgettable congressman. He is now a Senator of the Republic to which he owes greatly to his own sister, Kris, and his mother Cory, who both used their popularity during the elections to campaign for a forgettable brother and son.
The presidency is the highest position in the country. It is not meant for people who are still on the OJT stage (on-the-job training). It is a position meant for great people. This country can only achieve greatness if we put great people on the steering wheel. To pass the mantle of greatness from Ninoy and Cory to a son who has so far haven't done anything great in his life would demean and cheapen the legacies that Ninoy and Cory left behind. Cory did not survive 9 coup attempts, and Ninoy did not breathe his last breath on a dirty airport tarmac for it to be used as their forgettable son's publicity tool for his presidential ambition.
This country is not that HOPELESS to settle for MEDIOCRITY.
@Bellvue aka Danilo Deloro,
To all bloggers: please spend time to read this for your enlightenment as per the blog of Bellvue aka Danilo Deloro.
This is a rejoinder to your blog “Don't beleive on survey...” by Bellvue on Mon, 04/26/2010 - 11:16
Bellvue aka Danilo Deloro, you said you are improving, but the real truth is that you are brainless. I think you have to study more regarding poll survey. What makes me aghast, shocked and sickened is your statement that, quote: “The rule of thumbs for accurate survey is 20% ...SWS and Pulse asia. 0.0001 % of the voters population which is 50 million...in order survey to be accurate..it must at least 10 millon sample”, unquote.
My observations are:
1. SWS survey with 2,400 respondents is (2,400 ÷ 50,000,000 x 100) = 0.0048%, which is greater than 0.0001% compared to your calculation. In Mathematics, where zeros are located at the right hand immediately next to the decimal point, numbers with lesser or fewer zeros are greater than a number with more zeros. Thus, 0.0048% is greater than 0.0001%. Bellvue’s calculation of 0.0001% is totally wrong and misleading, because 0.0001% represents only 50 samples/respondents of the 50 million (50 ÷ 50,000,000 x 100) = 0.0001%.
2. Pulse Asia survey with 3,000 respondents is (3,000 ÷ 50,000,000 x 100) = 0.006%, which is greater than 0.0001%. In Mathematics, where zeros are located at the right hand immediately next to the decimal point, numbers with lesser or fewer zeros are greater than a number with more zeros. Thus, 0.006% is greater than 0.0001%. Bellvue’s calculation of 0.0001% is totally wrong and misleading, because 0.0001% represents only 50 samples/respondents of the 50 million (50 ÷ 50,000,000 x 100) = 0.0001%.
3. Combined SWS and Pulse Asia surveys is (5,400 ÷ 50,000,000 x 100) = 0.011%
4. Both SWS and Pulse Asia has a margin of error ±2%.
5. The Manila Broadcasting Co.-dzRH survey on April 16 with 6,900 respondents showed Aquino leading the race with 38.6 percent, followed by Nacionalista Party standard-bearer Sen. Manuel Villar Jr. with 22.8 percent. 6,900 respondents is 0.0138% of the 50 million. Follow this link:- http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=569022&publicationSubCate...
6. LIBERAL party candidate Benigno Aquino III maintained a 15-percentage point lead over his closest presidential rival, Senator Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr., 38 percent to 23 percent, in the latest Manila Standard poll. Conducted between April 18 and 20, the poll asked 2,500 respondents to cast their votes for president, vice president and 12 senators on a ballot similar to the May 10 form. The survey had a margin of error of 2 percent on the national level. 2,500 respondents is 0.005% of the 50 million. Follow this link:-http://mstpoll.wordpress.com/
7. As regard the 10 million samples, below are the analysis.
8. For a 10 million sample/respondents, we need 111,111 respondents per day for a 90-day period survey. Refer to calculations below:
a. 10,000,000 ÷ 90 = 111,111 respondents per day for a period of 90 days.
b. Take 200 respondents for every Surveyor/Interviewer, so you will need (111,111 ÷ 200) = 555 Surveyors/Interviewers daily.
c. The more the number of respondents an Interviewer will take, a bigger error is most likely, because the Interviewer will have a tendency to be in a rush just to catch up the quota of respondents required of him.
d. This is not possible, because you need to release the results 15 days ahead of the election day.
9. For a 10 million sample/respondents, we need 166,666 respondents per day for a 60-day period survey. Refer to calculations below:
a. 10,000,000 ÷ 60 = 166,666 respondents per day for a period of 60 days.
b. Take 200 respondents for every Surveyor/Interviewer, so you need (166,666 ÷ 200) = 833 Surveyors/Interviewers daily
c. The more the number of respondents an Interviewer will take, a bigger error is most likely, because the Interviewer will have a tendency to be in a rush just to catch up the quota of respondents required of him.
10. For a 10 million sample/respondents, we need 222,22 respondents per day for a 45-day period survey. Refer to calculations below:
a. 10,000,000 ÷ 45 = 222,222 respondents per day for a period of 45 days.
b. Take 200 respondents for every Surveyor/Interviewer, so you need (222,222 ÷ 200) = 1,111 Surveyors/Interviewers daily
c. The more the number of respondents an Interviewer will take, a bigger error is most likely, because the Interviewer will have a tendency to be in a rush just to catch up the quota of respondents required of him.
11. For a 10 million sample/respondents, we need 333,333 respondents per day of survey for a 30-day period. Refer to calculations below:
a. 10,000,000 ÷ 30 = 333,333 respondents per day for a period of 30 days.
b. Take 200 respondents for every Surveyor/Interviewer, so you need (333,333 ÷ 200) = 1,666 Surveyors/Interviewers daily
c. The more the number of respondents an Interviewer will take, a bigger error is most likely, because the Interviewer will have a tendency to be in a rush just to catch up the quota of respondents required of him.
12. For 60, 45 and 30 days survey period, you can only take one poll survey, because of the limited period of 90 days.
Bellvue aka Danilo Deloro, for more information, follow this link:-
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=17776e13-400d-4a9...
In a recent poll survey in California conducted by SurveyUSA News Poll between 04/19/2010 - 04/21/2010 for the GOP and Democratic Nominee for the Senate and Gubernatorial Primary contest, only 2,600 were interviewed. There are 23.4 Million registered voters at the close of voter’s registration in May 2009, as per this link:- http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/jtf/JTF_LikelyVotersJTF.pdf. Taking this number at 23.2 Million, the equivalent of 20% is 4,680,000, whilst 2,600 represent 0.012% of the 23.2 Million.
So, do you think SurveyUSA News Poll will have to interview 4,680,000 respondents just to get the 20% to justify the rule of thumbs that you are boasting? This is a non-sense and stupid idea. I wonder which rule of thumb you are referring to? Are you licensed pollster to say that 20% is the rule of thumb?
I strongly believe that SWS, Pulse Asia, Manila Standard, dzRH Manila Broadcasting Co., etc., are in conformance with the correct methodology and the minimum required number of respondents.
Bellvue aka Danilo Deloro, I advise you, please study more on Mathematics and don’t expose your ignorance, because there are a lot people who are watching your moves. I let my niece, who has just graduated in Grade 6, to double check your calculations and found out that what you have presented are grossly incorrect and misleading. Ikaw na ang pinakabobo na nakilala ko sa balat ng lupa. Shame . . . shame . . . . shame . . . . on you.
Getting paid to do surveys
We have studied surveys back in master's class. and indeed, these are sponsored. By whom? By anyone who can pay up!
Don't believe in surveys. Benta yan. Mind conditioning at its best and sadly, people get swayed.
Vote Straight LP in Senate to support Noynoy & Mar
Siguradong panalo na si Noynoy at Mar. No question about it.
Pwera lang kung madaya nanaman sila.
Ayway, let's vote LP Straight:
Roco SONIA
Yasmin BUSRAN-LAO
Neric ACOSTA
Alex LACSON
Martin BAUTISTA
Danny LIM
Serge OSMENA
Ralph RECTO
Ruffy BIAZON
TG GUINGONA
Risa HONTIVEROS
Franklin DRILON
Villarroyo+Ampatuans=Presidency
http://www.gmanews.tv/story/189436/np-spokesman-remulla-admits-visiting-...
NP spokesman Remulla admits visiting Andal Ampatuan Sr. last month
AMITA O. LEGASPI, GMANews.TV
Nacionalista Party spokesman and senatorial candidate Gilbert Remulla admitted on Monday he visited former Maguindanao governor Andal Ampatuan Sr. last month to settle matters pertaining to his safety and security.
However, he vehemently denied seeking the endorsement of the influential Ampatuan clan, members of whom are accused of masterminding and/or participating in the killing 57 people, including journalists and women in November last year.
“(The supposed meeting) was of personal concern and not political, safety and security concern which I have to deal with directly and squarely," he told GMANews.TV over the phone.
Remulla assured that his advocacy for the safety of journalists and stopping the killings of media practitioners is stronger than ever.
“I have not wavered in my commitment to protect journalists. I condemn the Maguindanao killing and I wish for swift justice for the victims. I weep for the families of the victims," he said.
He reiterated that he really had to settle matters that’s why he decided to visit the Ampatuans.
“The visit has nothing to do with politics," he said.
The Ampatuans were also accused of manipulating votes in the province in the past elections.
In the meantime, fellow NP spokesperson and senatorial candidate Adel Tamano said Remulla did the right thing in admitting the visit and clarifying the party had nothing to do with it.
"He (Remulla) should make it very clear that it (visit) was without the sanction from the NP. From the very start, we have said that the Ampatuans are creations of GMA [President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo] so any talk or endorsement from the Ampatuans is really a support from GMA," he said.
Tamano, who is from Mindanao, said the NP "would never stand or allow solicitation of support from the Ampatuans."
Many people in Mindanao have told him to talk with the Ampatuans for support in the May polls "pero hindi ko ginagawa dahil wala akong maihaharap na mukha sa publiko pag ganun."
(But I didn’t do that because I wouldn’t be able to face the public if I did that.)
The Ampatuans were accused of maneuvering the votes in the province in the past elections which allegedly benefited administration candidates.
At the same time, Remulla denied that there was tension between him and Tamano.
"It was just an exchange of statements," he said.
Tamano expressed the same sentiments, adding he was satisfied with the clarification made by Remulla.
Meanwhile, NP standard bearer Manuel Villar Jr. said he knew nothing about the meeting.
"Hindi naman ako asawa ni Gilbert para pagpaalaman niya. Mabuti pa si Gilbert ang tanungin nyo dyan," Villar told reporters at the sidelines of a presidential forum organized by religious groups in Araneta Coliseum.
(I'm not Gilbert's spouse so it's not for him to ask my permission. It's better you ask him yourself.)
Villar had earlier denied any links with the Ampatuans
Bellevue
Wow !! You honestly believe people will read your post, it is not a blog, it is a novel of epic proportions, you have taken up space that others could have you used. You obviously is well informed in the electoral process but your point of view is so overwhelming that I became overly exhausted just halfway through your novela.
Surveys are actually reliable and conclusive. Here in the U.S. surveys are called "Polls". It is a barometer used to capture the pulse of the voting public. Obama led all polls prior to the election and the proof is in the pudding, he was the eventual winner. I feel a 12% lead is too much to overcome,with just 2 weeks left before the election. As in the proverbial "hand writing is on the wall" I believe Noynoy is the next president. I'm not a Noynoy supporter( I'm an American citizen, therefore ineligible to vote) but I am also realistic, it is too late for any candidate to catch up with Noynoy.
Bellvue
"Don’t be fooled, a silent majority is supporting Gibo." -Bellvue
Then why are you writing a book on a blog page? Lol
April 25, 2010 Gilbert
April 25, 2010
Gilbert Teodoro is My President
From Halalan2010.com
(NOTE: I AM CONSTANTLY IMPROVING AND UPDATING THIS POST, SO PLEASE CHECK BACK FROM TIME TO TIME. IF YOU WANT PARTICULAR ISSUES/QUESTIONS ANSWERED, PLEASE FEEL FREE TO LEAVE A COMMENT. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR SHARING THIS PIECE WITH YOUR FRIENDS AND FAMILY.)
A “Dark Horse” Emerges - The Non-Cliche Among The Stereotypes
In any race, everyone looks out for the proverbial ‘dark horse’ to emerge from the shadows and wrest victory from what one would assume to be the predictable winner of a predictable race.
The 2010 Presidential elections, prior to the death of Corazon Aquino was already in the bag. Villar was the strongest contender, with years of painstaking PR efforts to build a good reputation and positive image behind him. Mar Roxas (my personal choice) was highly unlikely to even make a dent, with the likes of Chiz Escudero also in the running.
The hullaballoo surrounding Gilbert Teodoro’s selection as the Lakas-Kampi-CMD standard bearer raised a lot of eyebrows. He was formerly with the NPC where he began his political career, and to date declines to comment about the reason behind his alleged ‘desertion’. He has, however, emphasized in interviews that it’s strictly a family affair. Governors mobilized to rally for his selection, while Lakas stalwart Bayani left the party in a huff for being ignored.
“Huh?!? Gilbert Teodoro? Sino yon?”
Just like a blind date gone wrong, Murphy’s Law intervened and made Gibo’s introduction to the presidential battle shaky. How? Ondoy and Maguindanao. Gibo was the Secretary of the Department of National Defense (DND) and concurrently the Chairperson of the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) before he resigned to run as President - long before the Supreme Court made any ruling on the matter, if I may add.
Stress Tests: Ondoy and Maguindanao Massacre
As NDCC Chair, everyone was furious with Gibo, whether it was his fault or not. My sister, Information and Networking Coordinator at the Asia Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) replied to my rants, putting to rest many of my own misconceptions about disaster preparedness and risk management.
One thing I noticed early on about Gibo that earned my grudging respect was that he never made excuses for whatever shortcomings he had in handling Ondoy. In our country where blame is the name of the game, Gibo never lashed back at his detractors in typical defensive fashion. He didn’t make excuses. He didn’t say “Boo hoo, look at me. It’s not my fault.” He quietly did his job. On the day Ondoy struck, he rode the MRT and swam in murky flood water just to get to his office (I guess siya ang literal na nakalangoy sa dagat ng basura) - he didn’t make a big show of it. In a later interview with Al Jazeera, Gibo did not let the reporter bully or provoke him about Ondoy, answering his questions fully and emphasizing that the country’s response to the disaster met international standards - including the UN. He handled the problem admirably, quietly and with grace.
The Maguindanao Massacre in late November should have been another crushing blow to the aspirant. “What did he do to stop the Ampatuans?” many have asked. Gibo answered this in ANC’s Tapatan - as DND, the Ampatuans did not receive more than they were allowed, and Gibo rendered a proper accounting of this, but he quietly added that the DND has no control over the ‘discretionary’ issuances of guns and ammunition to CVOs directly from the Office of the President.
It must be noted that it was Gibo who was the first to act decisively and demonstrate his outrage at what happened - he caused the expulsion of the Ampatuans from the party and he personally accompanied Mangudadatu to file his certificate of candidacy, together with his friend and former party President Sarangani Gov. Migs Dominguez. Gibo has earned the respect of Muslim groups, as articulated by Amina Rasul-Bernardo (director of the Philippine Council on Islam and Democracy) herself.
These two incredibly difficult situations would have easily broken a lesser candidate - add to that the ‘kiss of death’ of the current administration.
Whether you like Gibo or not, you would admire his extraordinary humility as a government official. Extraordinary because in our culture of blame and defensiveness, Gibo exemplifies what our public servants sorely lack - someone who will take the shit and still do his job, irrespective of praise. On a positive note, the Ondoy typhoon and Maguindao massacre became the ultimate stress tests and Gibo passed with flying colors.
Why I Am Not Voting for the Other Candidates
Moral Force and Integrity
Who has the monopoly of moral force and integrity, pray tell? Noynoy Aquino? Villar and his ads? We have other candidates running on integrity and the promise of a clean administration. We have Bro. Eddie - a religious leader, upstart JC De Los Reyes, we have Richard Gordon and we have Gibo. I’d count Jamby, too, if I were sure she was serious about running.
Because I am writing about Gibo, I will not go into the gory details of Hacienda Luisita or the C-5 controversy, and all the other sensationalized demolition jobs that have little relevance to my concerns as a voter.
Morality/integrity is not a birthright you can claim, it can’t be glossed over with ads and it’s easier said than lived.
Political Will
If anyone has the capacity and will to implement CARP with respect to Luisita, then Gibo would be in the best position. He has the strength and will to do it, he is in a unique position as well, being a Cojuangco. Just read up on Hacienda Luisita issues and watch videos to know more about it. He may be a Cojuangco, yes, but he’s on the other side of the fence, one that doesn’t depend on Luisita. Now, as to what he will do with his own uncle’s numerous legal battles as a former Marcos crony, well, he is bound by his duties as Danding’s former lawyer to act on it personally.
As for GMA and even his political opponents, Gibo has stressed many times that as President, he will not engage in the politics of vengeance and he will not interfere in any way (for or against) in the prosecution of PGMA, among others. In other words, he will not exacerbate any further the problems with an already politicized justice system. I infer that he will do his part in ensuring the independence and integrity of the courts as well, corollary to his commitment.
His swift and decisive action on the Maguindanao massacre when others dilly-dallied, as I have earlier stated, have earned him the respect of no less than the Muslim community. The fact that Mangudadatu himself has stayed with Gibo and Lakas-Kampi when the more logical choice would have been to move to LP is telling. Why is he staying? Because of PGMA, who is believed to have benefited from the Ampatuans’ ruthless rigging of the elections? Highly unlikely. On the other hand, Andal Ampatuan Jr. is courting the yellow and orange camps - he probably thinks it’s the “in” thing to do.
Track Record
Gibo is not running on “Galing at Talino” for nothing. He is a Bar topnotcher (number 1, in 1989), a NY Bar passer, a UP Law and Harvard Law School graduate, and a friggin’ pilot for crying out loud. He is the youngest DND secretary.
If we go by legislative accomplishments, Noynoy has passed zero bills while Gordon’s is the most impressive.
I have gone over Gibo’s legislative record. Many of the bills he filed are of local application - often related to building roads, schools and hospitals (in particular, he was actively pushing for the institutionalization of the teaching of forensic medicine, among others). His other bills are related to the administration of justice (establishing PAO as an independent and autonomous office, procedure for the removal of Sandiganbayan justices, etc.), human rights (prohibiting the public display of persons arrested, abolition of death penalty), and tax measures, among others.
I will not wax poetic about his legislative record and successfully enacted laws, lest I be accused of doing what NA’s PR spin team is doing to make mountains out of molehills. On this score, Richard Gordon’s achievements as Senator are far more impressive.
I will say, however, that if we were to analyze Gibo’s legislative record, then it’s clear that for his term as Congressman, he focused on the improvement of his district and his province, which is more than I can say for his cousin and fellow Tarlaqueno. I can also glean from the record that as President, he will start on the fundamentals of nation-building: education, infrastructure development, health and justice.
As DND Secretary, I will just refer you to this. Parenthetically, I will add that among PGMA’s much-maligned Cabinet, only he and Sec. Cabral are widely respected for their hard work and integrity by allies and opponents alike.
I have no reason to doubt Gibo’s intelligence and capacity to formulate and implement policies, and thus, I believe that while he may not have a particularly impressive legislative record out there, he has done good, solid work wherever he went.
Loved by his friends and allies, admired by his opponents
Who commands respect even from opposing camps and various personalities? Gibo. Anyone who has met him or worked with him speaks of him highly.
Jinggoy and Erap Estrada themselves told the public, if you don’t vote for Erap, vote for Gibo. Granted that it’s not exactly a shining endorsement coming from our deposed ex-President and his son, but the fact that he not only respects but admires Gibo is something.
Even Manny Villar’s wife, Rep. Cynthia Villar, sings Gibo’s praises. Outspoken PGMA critics respect and admire Gibo for his intellect, professionalism and integrity.
If we go by his untarnished record of public service, we can thank his father for setting a good example. We can also rely on Gibo’s word on this - he has not given us reason not to, in any case.
Why I Am Not Voting for Gordon
(Note that I will not even bother including Noynoy here because I don’t consider him qualified or competent for the post. As for Villar, he is a creation of his amazing ad agencies - but he is admittedly more competent than Noynoy, in my opinion. Still, among the candidates, the only other one I considered was Sen. Richard ‘Dick’ Gordon.)
As MaynMan put it, “In a better world, it would be Gibo v. Gordon,” and I wholeheartedly agree. If people were more discerning, it would be obvious from the beginning that only the two are legitimate options for our next President.
Both are competent and credible leaders. Gordon is truly formidable, with years of legislative and executive experience that he never fails to remind us about. He is also known for his integrity and independence.
It wasn’t easy choosing between Gibo and Gordon. Both have the potential to bring significant improvement to our country’s worsening political and economic situation.
After watching debates, reading interviews and articles, various authorities have pointed out that Gibo has a better grasp of issues. He is more specific about his platforms and agenda. In the Choices and Voices 2010 forum in Cebu, for example, Gibo impressed the audience with the depth of his knowledge about Cebu, down to the city’s infrastructure and his specific proposed solutions to problems and concerns raised by them. Gibo likewise displayed a commanding grasp of issues, even in the area of tourism, where presumably Gordon is more knowledgeable. (In saying this, I’m quoting the observers who attended the forum and said that Gordon gave more general answers compared to Gibo’s specific, credible ones) Gibo also won the mock polls in that forum.
Gordon’s attitude and abrasiveness - trivial as it may seem to others, has likewise put off other people. (His recent breakdown on national television doesn’t help, either) From personal experience, Taytay councilor and mayoral candidate Joey Calderon recounted to us during our relief mission his own Ondoy encounter with Gordon. He called Gordon for help, desperate because Brgy. Sta. Ana was not receiving much-needed aid for supplies and food because of the difficulty reaching the evacuation center (waist-deep in flood water). When he finally reached Gordon by phone, begging for help from the Red Cross, Gordon answered, “Wag kang makulit!” and hung up. Contrast this to Eastern Samar Gov. Evardone’s account of how Gibo left his father’s wake and personally delivered relief goods and medical supplies to his typhoon-ravaged province in 2008 when no one else wanted to go because travel there was dangerous. (I’ve read somewhere or watched in an interview that Gibo flew the plane himself, because the pilots didn’t want to since there was no adequate landing area for the plane)
Unlike Gordon, Gibo is dealing with the pressures of the campaign with remarkable cool - something I’d like to see in my future President when he takes on bigger problems. Gibo also has greater potential for pushing for national unity. He is the only one who has vowed not to engage in vengeance and retribution after he wins, and offers an olive branch to his political opponents.
I also believe that the two will work together well, should the other win, and their synergy will do wonders for our country. I believe that any Vice President under Gibo should expect fair treatment from him as well.
A Positive and Principled Campaign
One would expect that as PGMA’s anointed one (with kiss of death, too), Gibo would be spending most of his time thrashing it out with opponents who insult his intelligence and call him a puppet. Gibo, who is far more intelligent and educated than his opponents is being painted as a man without a mind of his own.
The easiest way out for him is to sever ties with PGMA - stand on the pulpit and call her names. Many people I’ve talked to have told me that his association with PGMA is the only reason they are not voting for him.
His overall conduct of the campaign is also a good indication of his moral bearings.
Of course, better than anyone else, Gibo would know the implications of joining the general ruckus. Being Anti-GMA would very likely win him a lot of votes whether he stays with the party or not. Being Anti-GMA would certainly save him the trouble of coming up with a platform of governance - all he has to do is to mouth anti-GMA, anti-corruption slogans and motherhood statements, and people will love him.
On the contrary, Gibo, by his own choice is forcing voters to stop and reassess the situation. Why would an otherwise good guy, the best man for the job, even, stick it out with the reviled administration? Why can’t he just do what is expected of him?
Gibo doesn’t shirk from the responsibility of being the guy who is being backed by the most unpopular President to date. He answers questions/allegations about his GMA connection without hesitation - even if people think his answers are unpopular. He avoids retaliating with mudslinging and demolition jobs even when many of these are directed at him.
Gibo’s positive campaign draws on the force of the formidable party machinery but the truly amazing phenomenon people should be aware of is the massive and organized youth-led national volunteer movement that tirelessly campaigns for him.
Whether or not it was a sound idea, politically, for Gibo to resign as party chairman, his move certainly purged the party of opportunists and trapos (Chavit, Salceda, among others) who will stab him in the back anyway.
Palabra de honor (word of honor) and delicadeza are shockingly new words in our political vocabulary but Gibo and the public are holding fellow politicians accountable for their actions. Instead of saying - “It’s acceptable, it’s politics,” people have begun to question the motives behind defections, the principles (or lack thereof) of politicians seeking an easy and convenient win by jumping on the bandwagon.
Gibo is walking the talk, and at least he can proceed with the campaign without looking over his shoulder, waiting for the next betrayal. Meanwhile, these defectors have been welcomed with open arms by the other parties desperate for votes but political defection is not what it used to be - now you have to answer to the people.
More importantly, while media outfits trumpeted the collapse of the Lakas-Kampi merger, it was the overwhelming show of support of Green Team movements scattered all over the country that countered these highly sensationalized defections.These volunteers rallied behind Gibo and in a superior show of strength, demonstrated that Gibo is truly the people’s candidate.
Gibo leads by example; his volunteers are constrained to follow and resist mudslinging just to get ahead. In the Gibo Facebook fan pages, you will find volunteers gently reminding fellow volunteers not to wage word wars or say derogatory things about other candidates. Try to visit other fan pages/blogs/sites of other candidates and you will see the difference.
Gibo has never resorted to gimmickry to draw attention to himself. No celebrities, no patronizing ads or slogans to pander to the masses. He assumes that every Filipino is an intelligent voter who will vote according to reason, platforms and not propaganda. On his part, he is certainly doing his best to engage on issues, platforms and advocacies.Likewise, he does not complain if media reports are biased against him, if there are biased moderators in debates, if he is only given a short period of time to talk about his views and stance on issues. He doesn’t pretend, mince words or conceal his feelings about the likes of Nograles, and you can’t accuse him of being ‘plastic’ about it.
For volunteers, that means engaging other detractors/undecided voters/hardcore supporters from other camps in principled debate. Green Team volunteers can’t just come up to someone and say, “Vote for Gibo - basta, hindi siya magnanakaw.” No, volunteers have to be knowledgeable about our candidate - his platforms, agenda and positions on various issues. We have to follow his example and not resort to fighting, name calling or cheap, bandwagon methods just to get people to vote for our candidate.
It’s so easy to engage in negative campaigning, to dish out creative insults and to point fingers, say mean things to other supporters. What about your self-respect and how can you admire or believe in your candidate who does it himself?
A Presidential candidate who not only tolerates mudslinging but practices is not worthy of respect. How will he even lead the country?
A candidate who respects himself also earns the respect and pride of his supporters. A candidate who keeps the campaign clean and principled is admired by allies and opponents alike. We Gibo supporters and believers wear that distinction like a medal, because no one else can claim that - and believe me, it’s harder to actually practice integrity than just talk about it.
Above all, many volunteers are spending out of their own pockets, contributing creatively on a budget (wallpapers, stickers, etc.) - whether it’s on transportation fare to regularly visit the Gibo HQ or small-scale production of materials to distribute. Some use internet bandwith to constantly post about Gibo news and updates, others have devoted their blogs on cyberspace for Gibo. These are things being done by other supporters as well, but you will have to admire the sheer determination, the good vibe and the unity behind the Green Team movements.
Gibo’s supporters and volunteers are striving to make up for what dubious party loyalties cannot do for him. Of course, party machinery is important, but what truly moves the people is the outpouring of support and sacrifice, of volunteers mobilizing all over the country - moving people with their sheer earnestness and belief in Gibo and what he can bring to the country. All this is done by volunteers without asking for or receiving anything in return. Whether it’s the media or pollsters talking, greenies are recognized as an important factor in Gibo’s campaign. Greenies are walking credible advertisements for Gibo, more important and influential on people than the ads they see on TV.
He is firm on his commitment to a clean campaign, and he is even more firm about his commitment to forging national unity. I believe him.
The Future Beckons
… And it’s not a rosy one if we do not get our act together. But six years is enough for a good president to put us back on track. I will quote Gibo directly:
I believe the country, more important than needing a strong leader, needs strong leadership. This is the difference between what I perceive to be contemporary viewpoints, the failure to distinguish between the person and the institution. Oftentimes, strong leadership is built around an individual and stays that way, while I believe in creating lasting institutions with the clear position that my participation will be temporary.
A leader who is development oriented and who is humble enough (more importantly, not deluded at all) to center his administration around himself alone deserves my respect. He is thinking of the future, of setting the stage for us to work together to confront the problems confronting our nation.
I don’t want b.s. from my future President - he is not going to end poverty overnight. I just want him to roll up his sleeves and get to work. We Pinoys should follow his example, too, and make nation building our responsibility and not just our head of state.
Conclusion
Gibo never asks people to vote for him just because he says so. As I earlier stated, he doesn’t rely on other influential people (celebrities, actors, whoever) to sing his praises and use their clout and appeal for regular folks to vote for him.
He encourages every voter to be critical and informed about their candidates and should they find him the best one for the job, then he welcomes the support. Gibo’s ads have been branded as abstract and elitist (especially the sulong commercial) simply because there are no celebrities, no perpetually exploited images of poverty and despair or anti-corruption slogans (so popular in our jaded political landscape) and no unrealistic promises. Gibo is likewise out in the cold because he doesn’t want to the join the Star Wars like battle of good versus evil that simplistically defines the 2010 elections. Pragmatic voters who are polarized into batting for Noynoy and Villar only are weighing their options based on winnability.
Yet support grows for Gibo with each passing day. Don’t be fooled by the surveys. Don’t vote based on popularity alone, or misguided illusions. Ask why the media is intensely focused on reporting on black propaganda instead of educating and informing the public about issues the future President should be prepared to handle. Look for other sources of information and opinion - a little research goes a long way.
There are three things I never thought I would do for any Presidential candidate, I have done so far in my earnestness to persuade other people that Gibo is the best man for the job:
1. I finally decided to become a registered voter just so I could vote for him. I tried to register twice, and was successful on my second try last December. It dawned on me that I was actually doing something concrete and embarrassingly, long overdue. I was doing it for my candidate; I was doing it as a responsible citizen.
2. I am doing my part, no matter how small, to contribute to Gibo’s campaign.
3. I am actually going to pray (I don’t pray) as hard as I can for the success of Gibo’s presidential campaign.
In our popularity and personality-driven politics, it’s not “in” to be green. They have painted the battle as narrowed down to two candidates only - to the exclusion of a third candidate who has inspired many of us by his word and deed. We see through the smoke and mirrors.
Don’t be fooled, a silent majority is supporting Gibo.
Like Gibo, even in the face of serious doubts about the capacity of Filipinos to vote based on platform and not popularity, to be rational instead of emotional, to vote based on conscience and not convenience - I know that Filipinos will make the right choice. Mark my words, he will win.
3:20am | URL: http://enuhski.tumblr.com/post/547517406/gilbert-teodoro-is-my-president
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