MANILA - The administration will not be able to muster the necessary 220 votes to approve a constitutional amendment that will extend the term of President Arroyo, according to administration ally La Union Rep. Victor Ortega.
 
Ortega is the chairman of the House committee on constitutional amendments and a member of the merged ruling party, Lakas-Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino-Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-KAMPI-CMD).
 
"Sometimes our fears of this happening and that happening is way ahead. In so far as the number is concerned, really, it's an impossible dream to go along with this. I myself believe we cannot muster that number," Ortega said Tuesday at a forum on constituent assembly organized by the Ateneo Law School.
 
"But let us wait until July 27. People will be eagerly waiting, perhaps, with their mouths open, Nograles declaring the convening of a constituent assembly. Will he do that? I do not believe so. We are not that callous. We would like the senators to participate. If they don't want to participate, we will not insist," Ortega added.

No amendment before 2010?
 
Former Ateneo Law School Dean Fr. Joaquin Bernas had a similar assessment.

"I do not believe you can get 220 votes to propose amendments. That's why I'm not really worried. I am very confident that in the end, we will have a Constitutional Convention after 2010, and no amendment before that," he said.
 
House Resolution 1109 calls for the convening of Congress into a constituent assembly to propose and approve charter amendments through joint voting or without the participation of the Senate.

As opposed to separate voting, joint voting--assuming they can get the three-fourths vote--would allow the 265-member House of Representatives to approve charter amendments even without the Senate.
 
Ortega has been openly opposed to any move to bypass the Senate in the constituent assembly. But, as chair of the House committee on constitutional amendments, he said he had to give in to the decision of the majority in the committee who wanted to see if HR 1109 could be passed.

Only agreed to meet 
 
"House Resolution 1109 is nothing more than a resolution saying we agree to meet. Nothing more. That is what we voted for. We agreed to meet to exercise constituent powers. What are we going to talk about, we will know when we meet," Ortega explained.
 
Nevertheless, Ortega insisted there is really a need to amend the Constitution.

"If the amendment is something that is generally acceptable and recognized as good for the country, there is no reason why we cannot get not only 220 but 270 votes. But as I said, it will depend on what will be their proposal," he said.

Covenants binding? 
 
Ortega reiterated the covenants in HR 1109, which state that no term extension or postponement of the elections will be allowed.
 
However, Bernas said that once Congress convenes into a constituent assembly, it can abandon those covenants because they are not legally binding.
 
It is only "morally" binding, Ortega conceded. "I still have faith and trust in my colleagues. Most, if not all, will stick by the covenants," he said.
 
Besides, Ortega said, any proposal to amend the constitution will have to be approved in a plebiscite.

"The final say is yours and mine in the polling place come plebiscite time," Ortega said.