MANILA - Martial law is a bigger danger than a constituent assembly (con-ass), according to former Defense Secretary Avelino 'Nonong' Cruz Jr..

“Emergency rule is a bigger danger. It’s going to be drastic. A Constituent Assembly will have to go through the eye of a needle. If it’s done according to law, it’s going to be difficult,” he told reporters on Wednesday after delivering a speech on martial law in a forum organized by the Integrated Bar of the Philippines (IBP).

(Read related story: Cruz to soldiers: Disobey unlawful orders)

The IBP organized the conference on martial law amid speculations that Malacañang is planning to declare martial law.

“There is a clear and present danger that the president may try to perpetuate herself in power by hook or by crook. This is quite evident from recent developments,” said IBP external vice president Rogelio Vinluan.  

“There are imminent threats, a clear and present danger of a substantive evil which we have a right to prevent. It’s a danger to the rule of law,” said lawyer Carlos Medina of the poll watchdog Legal Network for Truthful Elections (Lente). 
 
President’s ‘Chacha’

Cruz also belied claims of administration allies in the House of Representatives that President Arroyo is not behind the moves to amend the constitution.  

“I have reasons to believe that, like the failed People’s Initiative in 2006, President Arroyo is the prime mover of this attempt to amend the constitution with the objective of extending her stay in power beyond her constitutional term,” Cruz said.  

But he said it’s going to be difficult to amend the constitution without the senators.  

“They need 225 votes. They don’t even have that number yet,” he said. And even if the administration allies muster the necessary number, Cruz said the Supreme Court will find it hard to justify joint voting by Congress.  

“Napakagarapal naman...Kung pag-iisipan mo, mas madaling bumoto na kasama ang Senado. Yun naman ang tama,” Cruz said.  

Bloodshed?

While Cruz said he is confident that these moves to keep President Arroyo in power beyond 2010 will fail, he is worried about the repercussions.  

“An attempt itself will cause damage to our institutions. It will cause damage to our economy,” Cruz said.  

“There may be bloodshed if the government miscalculates,” he added.  

“I’m confident the military will not support her. An overwhelming majority of the officers and men—from senior generals and middle ranking colonels to the young lieutenants, captains, and sergeants—will not support these moves. They want a normal, peaceful transition.” Cruz said.  

“I’m hoping that the administration will not miscalculate and think they can successfully declare emergency rule,” he said.  

“Napataas ang temptation for a president who has been too long in power na may pananagutan. Humihirap ang pagbitiw. Sana maresist niya ang temptation na yun,” Cruz said.  

Vigilance

Cruz called for vigilance among the people to resist threats to democracy. 

“I renew my call for our brothers and sisters in the legal profession to stand guard against attempts to subvert the rule of law, to constantly remind the Supreme Court of its role as the last bulwark of democracy, and to hold to account those who have violated their oath to preserve and defend the Constitution, execute its laws, do justice to every man and consecrate themselves to the service of our nation," he said.  

“I renew my call for our people to remain vigilant and discerning and to be prepared to stand in the way of any attempt to perpetuate in office the present wielders of power," he added.