MANILA - A political analyst doubts El Shaddai's estimated 3 million following would deliver the votes in the event that its leader, Mariano "Brother Mike" Velarde decides to run for president next year.

Velarde told ABS-CBN News that he is now in the process of consulting his millions of followers regarding a possible run for the presidency in 2010.

Professor Edna Co of the University of the Philippines' National College for Public Administration and Governance (NCPAG) said the Catholic church -- under which the El Shaddai is a sub-sect -- has no tradition on bloc voting unlike the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC).

Co said while El Shaddai members are more solid and bonded compared to the rest of the Catholic church and its other sub-sects, a politcal mechanism is needed to consolidate support and deliver votes for Velarde or his chosen candidate.

She also said that even if there are attempts to introduce bloc voting in El Shaddai and other similar movements, it would take some time before this is embraced by its followers.

"Sa kasaysayan kasi ng botong Katoliko, wala namang puwedeng masasabing isang solidong Catholic vote. So sa kalagayan ng El Shaddai, palagay ko, mahirap magkaroon ng kaagad na translation into votes, hindi katulad nung sa Iglesia," she said.

Co said it's different with the INC because it has practiced bloc voting from the start, and its ideology stresses unity of the flock.

"Hindi kasi religious following yung basis talaga. Kailangan pa rin ng isang political machinery, kailangan ng isang political education at saka yung isang pagkumbinse dun sa mga miyembro ng mga religious sect," Co added.

The only real indication of the political clout of El Shaddai is the fact that its partylist group, Buhay, topped the partylist race in 2007. But earlier reports by Newsbreak in its post-mortem analysis of the 2007 elections indicated that this victory was not easily achieved.

In the article, No longer Marginalized, Newsbreak's Glenda Gloria discussed how hard the El Shaddai leader had to work to secure Buhay's victory. In They Crowded Mindanao, Newsbreak's Aries Rufo related how Buhay benefited from dagdag-bawas operations in Mindanao.

Senators weigh in on Velarde announcement

Meanwhile, several senators have reacted to Velarde's announcement regarding his plan to run for president in 2010.

"I don't think he has enough numbers to win the presidency," said Senator Panfilo Lacson, a losing presidential candidate in 2004. "But kung force to reckon with, o kung meron following, definitely meron. At kaya ba niyang mamuno o hindi? Siya lang ang makakasagot noon, and, of course, yung electorate."

Senators Jinggoy Estrada said he would like to see Velarde use his influence in some other way.

"Sana, tumulong na lang siya sa mga kandidato na alam niya makakapaglingkod sa ating bansa," Estrada said.

He added that his father, former President Joseph Estrada, might talk with Velarde in the coming days regarding plans for the 2010 elections.

Senator Aquilino Pimentel, meanwhile, said Velarde is a "threat" to presidential aspirants, including Estrada. With reports from Lynda Jumilla and Maricar Bautista, ABS-CBN News and Newsbreak