50% prefer Noynoy in vote-rich Luzon areas: SWS survey


By Ricky Carandang, ANC and Isagani de Castro Jr., abs-cbnNEWS.com/Newsbreak | 09/13/2009 4:19 PM

MANILA - One out of every two voters in vote-rich areas of Luzon would have chosen Sen. Benigno 'Noynoy' Aquino III if presidential elections were held in early September 2009, according to a Special Survey by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) obtained by ANC and abs-cbnNEWS.com/Newsbreak.

Aquino was preferred by 50% of 1,200 respondents from a pre-selected list of five names that also included erstwhile survey leaders Sen. Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr., former President Joseph Estrada, Senator Francis 'Chiz' Escudero, and Vice-President Noli de Castro.

Villar, Estrada, and Escudero were statistically tied with 14%, 13%, and 12%, respectively. De Castro was preferred by 7% of respondents.

The survey was commissioned by a number of private individuals including some members of the business community.

The survey was conducted September 5 to 6 in the National Capital Region (NCR), Pangasinan province, Region 3 (Central Luzon), and Region 4-A (portions of Southern Tagalog).

This two-day period was after presidential aspirant Sen. Manuel 'Mar' Roxas II withdrew from the race in favor of Aquino, his Liberal Party colleague, and just days before Aquino announced he would run for the presidency. Roxas backed out on September 1 while Aquino announced his bid on September 9.

The survey has a margin of error of plus/minus 3%.

Although not a nationwide survey, the results give a good gauge of the competitiveness of the son of the late former President Corazon Aquino vis-a-vis the early birds in the presidential race.

Lingayen-Lucena corridor

Political tacticians refer to the vote-rich corridor from Lingayen in Pangasinan province to Lucena in Quezon province as a good indicator of a candidate's chances. These are mainly urban areas where television and radio play a big role in influencing the choices of voters.

The special survey also asked respondents to choose their preferences from different lists of names.

From a list of four names--Aquino, Villar, Estrada, de Castro--meaning without Escudero, Aquino got an even higher voter preference in the vote-rich areas of Luzon:

Aquino--55%
Villar--17%
Estrada--15%
De Castro--8%.
None--2%
Don't know--1%

From a list of only three names--Aquino, Villar, de Castro--or without Escudero and Estrada, the results were:

Aquino--63%;
Villar--21%;
De Castro--9%.
Estrada--2% (volunteered Estrada's name even if it was not on the list)
Don't know--1%
None--3%

Aquino-Roxas tandem top pick


In terms of which tandem was most preferred by respondents in the vote-rich areas of Luzon, Aquino-Mar Roxas got 51% voter preference based on a pre-selected list of five combinations:

Aquino-Roxas--51%
Estrada-Loren Legarda--12%
Villar-Kiko Pangilinan--11%
Escudero-Jejomar Binay--9%
De Castro-Ronnie Puno--4%.

Based on a pre-selected list of these four tandems, the results were:

Aquino-Escudero--49%
Villar-Pangilinan--16%
Estrada-Legarda--15%
De Castro-Puno--5%

Based on a pre-selected list of these four tandems, the results were:

Aquino-Estrada--33%
Villar-Pangilinan--20%
Escudero-Legarda--20%
De Castro-Puno--6%

Based a pre-selected list of these four tandems, the results were:

Aquino-Legarda--46%
Villar-Pangilinan--17%
Escudero-Binay--13%
De Castro-Puno--5%

Long way to go

However, a lot of factors can still affect the results of future surveys, including political advertisements, endorsements, campaign funding, debates, and candidates backing out. The elections are still eight months away.

The September 5 to 6 survey was when there was heavy media coverage about Roxas' withdrawal and Aquino's period of discernment on whether to run.

It remains to be seen whether Aquino, and an Aquino-Roxas tandem, will be able to keep this apparently commanding lead in the vote-rich areas of Luzon. 

as of 09/13/2009 4:27 PM

Remember

5

"When the last tree is cut, the last river poisoned, and the last fish dead, Man will discover that money cannot be eaten"

Is there anyone better than Noynoy? SINO at BAKIT??

I wonder kung sino yung bet nyo OneCentral, Sisidmarino etc..
Kasi curious lang ako sa mga NAGAWA ng iniisip nyong DAPAT.
I hope you dont mind kasi part to ng pagreresearch ng samahan namin dito sa Alabang para malaman kung sino ba talaga yung DAPAT na bigyan namin ng suporta ng walang hinihingin kapalit.

Pero shempre, mas maaappreciate namin kung masasabi nyo rin yung negative side ng Bet nyo? Kasi as far as I know, hindi lang positive side ang tinitimbang ngayon para kilalanin at tanggapin ang isang tao lalo na bilang Pangulo.

Enyshazriel

“We need a hardworking president

A partylist congressman from Cebu said he scanned the records at the House of Representatives and found out that Aquino never filed a single resolution or House Bill during his nine years as congressman of Tarlac.

It is now very clear that Noynoy Aquino just collected his salaries and huge monthly operational expenses for nine years and left the Filipino with nothing as benefits. Is that the kind of person they want to become president? hmmmm

TAMA KAYO SISIDMARINO AT ONECENTRAL

HOY MICKEYMOUSE GISING! HUWAG KANG MAGING BULAG NA TAGA-HANGA NI NOYNOY! SI NOYNOY SA 11 YEARS NIYA SA PARLIAMENT WALANG MAKABULUHANG NAGAWA YAN!!!NAGBINGI-BINGIHAN YAN TUNGKOL SA MGA INAAPING MGA OFWS WALA MAN LANG GINAWANG TULONG IYAN!!! NUNG PANAHON NI CORY SA 1986 CONSTITUTION, SHE EXEMPTED HACIENDA LUISITA FROM CARP...KAYA NAGHIHIRAP YUNG MGA FARMERS DOON UP TO NOW...7 FARMERS WERE MASSACRED IN HACIENDA LUISITA IN 2004...WALANG MALASAKIT SA MAHIHIRAP YUNG NOYNOY NA IYAN...tapos i-gi-give up niya daw yung maliit niyang share doon dahil sa tatakbo siyang presidente! bakit ngayun lang ha? dapat noon pa ginawa niya yan sana walang farmers na namatay noong 2004? at saka yung survey sa luzon na iyan ay gawa ng mga elitistang businessmen na pro-noynoy,kaya ginawa nilang number 1 sa survey...hahaha.halatang kasinungalingan! sa visayas at mindanao ay kulelat ang noynoy na iyan! KAYA HUWAG IBOTO ANG WALANG MALASAKIT SA BAYAN! HUWAG IBOTO ANG HIPOKRETONG ELITISTA! HUWAG IBOTO ANG WALANG NAGAWA SA 11 YEARS NA PANUNUNGKULAN! HUWAG IBOTO SI NOYNOY!

Nakakatawa na lang

Nakakatawang basahin ang mga comments ng tulad ng kay OneCentral at Sisid Marino - dynasty dynasty dynasty!!
It's actually nonsense for me (sorry, but please TRY to respect OUR opinion), napakababaw na katwiran? parang bata na nag-aasar lang kay Mickey?!
Hahahahaha!!

Enyshazriel

Republic of Aquinos: People Power and 1986 Cory Constitution

The Aquinos sure know how to keep their power. They have basically bought the whole country with such foundations they have patiently built over the span of 30 years from the "heroism"/conspiracy surrounding the martyrdom of their father to the people power legacy and the 1986 constitution sealing the presidency and power for generations of Aquinos and friends to come.

The Fifth Philippine Republic (Aquino Republic)

Corazon Aquino
Fidel Ramos
Joseph Estrada (overthrown in EDSA 2)
Gloria Arroyo (almost overthrown in EDSA 3)
Benigno Noynoy Aquino III
Aquino Enemy #4(to be deposed in EDSA 4)
Aquino Enemy #5(to be ousted in EDSA 5)
Aquino Ally
Kris Aquino, Jr.
and so on...

This 2010, if you believe RP is no Aquino country, if you believe in real change from old politics of division, popularity and popular revolts as a means to install Aquino and allies and depose Aquino foes, freedom from the 1986 Aquino constitution, from Tarlac elitism, failed land reform, and the longest conspiracy of Aquino democracy, DO NOT VOTE FOR NOYNOY!

Stop being used as a tool by the Aquino People Power Foundation!
STOP THE OLIGARCHS AND RULING ELITE FAMILIES!

NOYNOY = TRAPO

i just want to address...

I just want to address and clarify some leading issues against Noynoy Aquino. Of course these are only my personal views and everybody is entitled to their own opinion.

On the issue of Hacienda Luisita:

Para sa ibang ginagamit ang isyu ng Hacienda Luisita, naintindihan ko ang "concerns" ninyo. Ngunit, nagdeklara na si Noynoy na bitawan ang pagaari nya. Para sa kaalaman ninyo, 1/32 lang ang pagaari ni Noynoy. Meron pang natirang tatlumpot-isang mayari na magdesisyon. Ang Hacienda Luisita ay isang korporasyon na may sariling legal na personalidad. Meron itong "Board of Directors" na nagbibigay ng desisyon base sa "rule of majority" ng mga "stockholders" o mga may pagaari. Maliwanag na legally, walang magawa ni Noynoy kung ayaw magbago ng pasya ang majority. Wala siyang magawa dahil yan ang batas ng korporasyon. Kaya minabuti na nyang bitawan ang kanyang "share" SO THAT THE STIGMA OF HACIENDA LUISITA WILL BE PUT TO REST ONCE AND FOR ALL AS FAR AS HE IS CONCERNED.

Ang paraan lang sana para mabago ang sistema ay amyendahan ang Constitution para maisaklaw kaagad ang Hacienda Luisita (and those similarly situated) sa reporma sa lupa. But then, ayaw din naman nating amyendahan ang Consitution or Cha-Cha. Nangangahulugan lang na kontento na tayo sa sistema, di ba? Sana makadagdag ito sa kaalaman ng ating mga kababayan so that we will have an INFORMED DECISION, ika nga.

On the issue of Political Dynasty

TO BE SURE, POLITICAL DYNASTIES ARE NOT BASICALLY BAD; SOME ARE GOOD AND WORTH EMULATING. THE ANTONINO'S OF DADIANGAS IS ONE GOOD EXAMPLE. EVEN PACMAN FOR ALL HIS GLORY FAILED TO DETHRONE THE DYNASTY MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE ANTONINO'S REMARKABLE PERFORMANCE AND EXEMPLARY TRACK RECORD. YONG MGA PROVEN,,,I REPEAT...PROVEN...CORRUPT DYNASTIES LANG ANG SALOT SA LIPUNAN...SO FAR, WALA PA SA RECORD NG MGA AQUINOS 'YON. MARAMI PANG IBANG MAGAGANDANG EHEMPLO GAYA NG MGA LOBREGAT'S IN ZAMBOANGA CITY AND THE CERILLES' IN PAGADIAN CITY. ITONG HULI NAGING DEPARTMENT SECRETARY PA NI ERAP NGUNIT PUMUNTA SA ADMINISTRASYON PERO WALA KANG MAKITANG BAHID NG CORRUPTION.

On the issue of Traditional Politician popularly known as TRAPO

THE SAME RATIONALE IN POLITICAL DYNASTY CAN BE SAID IN REGARDS TO TRAPOS. TRADITIONAL POLITICIANS ARE NOT NECESSARILY BAD. AGAIN, ONLY THOSE TRADITIONAL POLITICIANS WHO ARE PROVEN CORRUPT, ANG TUNAY NA MGA SALOT SA LIPUNAN. MAY NARINIG BA TAYONG AQUINO NA CORRUPT??? IF NOT, THEN WHATS THE RELEVANCE OF THIS ISSUE? MARAMING TRADITIONAL POLITICIANS NA NANANATILING MALINIS ANG PANGALAN HANGGANG MALAGUTAN NG HININGA. GOOD EXAMPLES ARE DIOKNO, TANADA, AT IBA PA. MAY MGA BUHAY PA AT AKTIBO SA POLITIKA HANGGANG NGAYON PERO ADVISERS NA LANG GAYA NG LIVING ICON NA SI SEN. SALONGA.

KAYA MALIWANAG NA WALANG KATUTURAN ANG MGA NABANGGIT NA MGA ISSUES, INSOFAR AS NOYNOY AQUINO IS CONCERNED. NAKIKITA NAMAN NG TAUMBAYAN NA NAUUBUSAN NA NG ISSUES ANG MGA KALABAN KAYA PATI PERSONAL APPEARANCE NI NOYNOY AY PINAGDISKITAHAN. LALO TULOY LUMAKAS ANG PANGALAN NIYA AT KAHIT PAPANO NAPATUNAYAN SA KASALUKUYANG POLITICAL SURVEY.

FINALLY, ON THE ISSUE OF THE CURRENT SURVEY WHICH NOYNOY CONVINCINGLY TOPPED, I MUST ADMIT THAT POLITICAL SURVEYS ARE NOT 100% RELIABLE YET, UNDENIABLY, THESE ARE VERY GOOD AND SERIOUS INDICATORS. DI KO NA KAILANGANG BANGGITIN PA YONG AMBIVALENT POSITIONS OF VILLAR AND ERAP ON POLITICAL SURVEYS. PROOF THAT MY OPINION IS RIGHT IS THE CANDID ACKNOWLEDGMENT/ADMISSI0N OF THE DEPUTY SECRETARY GENERAL OF THE LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD PARTY WHICH INCIDENTALLY, THE PARTY OF GLORIA ARROYO. KUNG YONG TUNAY NA KALABAN NANINIWALA, TAYO PA KAYANG NAGBIBIGAY LANG NG ATING MGA KORO-KORO DITO? ISIPIN NYO NGANG MAIGE!

SANA MAGLIWANAG ANG ISIPAN NG MGA DETRACTORS NI NOYNOY AT GUMAWA NG SUBTANTIVE ISSUES AND CLEAN POLITICAL CAMPAIGN. SALAMAT SA PAGBASA MGA KABAYAN!

What About ViSMIN

5

Mananalo si Aquino kung luzon lang ang mag vote para sa president kaso meron pa kaming mga BISAYA...naging presidenti ang pandak dahil sa amin.

NOYNOY - ROXAS

The survey is still early, however, if this survey will remain or go up for 1-2 more months, and will include visayas and mindanao..then...it will become obvious of a landslide victory and the people's choice...whether some may disagree or not.... let the change, reforms and unity for the good and improvement of our country begins.....

"THERE IS NO GREATER NATION ON EARTH THAN OUR MOTHERLAND. NO GREATER PEOPLE THAN OUR OWN. SERVE THEM WITH ALL YOUR HEART, WITH ALL YOUR MIND AND WITH ALL YOUR STRENGTH. SON, THE BALL IS NOW IN YOUR HANDS..." (Letter of Ninoy Aquino to Noynoy - 1973)

AQUINO DYNASTY, UNA SI NINOY, SUMUNOD SI CORY, NGAYON SI NOYNOY

Sa Pilipinas ganyan ang nangyayari ngayon sa gobyerno, pami pamilya na ang sumasakop ngayon sa bawa't puwesto at ang panabi ng iba ay nakakabuti daw ito sa bayan. Ngayon masasabi ba nating ang Marcos at Macapagal The Nasty ay may magandang nagawa para sa mga Pilipino o sila lamang ang nagsisiyaman at nagsisitaba? Sagot na!



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