President Arroyo's administration might use emergency powers to clear the way for charter change and extend her term beyond 2010, a political analyst and members of the Liberal Party said Tuesday.

Political analyst Ramon Casiple, speaking at a democracy forum of the Liberal Party, said corruption complaints are likely to be filed against Mrs. Arroyo after 2010, which is why her administration has been looking for ways to extend her term through charter change.

To succeed, Casiple said that Mrs. Arroyo has to “overcome the opposition” to it while widening the “very tight” window in carrying out the plan.

He said Mrs. Arroyo would first have to create an environment where the opposition to charter change is weak.

If she is unable to do this, Caspile said there is the danger of agitation for some form of state of emergency or martial law in order to "dislocate the opposition, create a climate of fear and typically push through with the charter change."

With the lessons learned from former President Ferdinand Marcos' declaration of martial law in 1972, Casiple said the Arroyo administration may not use the full powers available under martial law.

It may lift it immediately after the anti-Arroyo opposition has been silenced and charter change has taken effect.

Tall order

One obstacle to this scenario is the military leadership's apparent preference to stay out of politics.

Casiple said Mrs. Arroyo would have to get the support of the current military and police leaderships in imposing martial law.

However, he said both institutions are being headed by members of the Philippine Military Academy Class (PMA) of 1976, which is strongly against military intervention in political affairs.

Armed Forces chief Alexander Yano and newly-appointed police chief Jesus Verzosa are members of this PMA class. Their classmates are currently holding key positions in both the military and the police organizations.

Sen. Franklin Drilon, Liberal Party chairman and former Senate president, agreed with Casiple.

“I’m confident that General Yano and the chain of command will adhere to the 1987 Constitution and will not support any attempt to impose martial law,” Drilon told reporters at the forum.

Drilon said that despite the current administration's failed attempts to amend the constitution in the past three years, he believes it will continue to try.

“The [current] threat is an extension of the President’s term through an amendment to the constitution,” he said.

Casiple, meanwhile, said the administration may be forced to “think out of the box because the reality is already out of the box.”

The former Senate president said the latest Executive Order 739, signed by Mrs. Arroyo last August, which orders the creation of the National Peace and Order Council (NPOC), may be one of the administration’s latest attempt to amend the Charter.

Liberal Party President Sen. Mar Roxas, earlier in the forum, said he is worried about the administration’s agenda in creating the NPOC, which will be led by Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno.

Roxas said the revival of the NPOC, which was formed by former President Marcos before declaring martial law, is one way of “extending the powers” of Malacañang to the local governments and local operational units of the police and the military.

Authoritarian tendency

Other Liberal Party officials, including Sen. Rodolfo Biazon, said Filipinos should examine recent moves made by the House of Representatives and the Supreme Court that may be part of a series of steps toward Charter change.

Biazon said that with the 1987 Constitution’s provisions that make the declaration of martial law “almost impossible,” the administration may use its influence in the lower house and in the judiciary.

Former Senate President Jovito Salonga also warned of the Arroyo administration’s strong clout in the legislature and in the Supreme Court.

Salonga said there are signs of the current administration’s “authoritarian tendency,” which may push it to use its emergency powers to extend Mrs. Arroyo’s term beyond 2010.

He said the administration has been succeeding in appointing “loyal people” to key positions in government, including the Supreme Court.

At the end of the forum, the Liberal Party officials assured that it will strongly oppose future moves of the administration to extend Mrs. Arroyo’s term or even the declaration of martial law.