MANILA - Extreme weather disturbances similar to tropical storm Ondoy (international codename Ketsana) will happen more frequently because of climate change, according to environmentalist and global expert on integral sustainable development Nicanor Perlas.

In an interview with ABS-CBN's "The Big Picture", Perlas said the Philippine government should prepare for more major storms by improving telecommunications systems, identifying strategic evacuation areas, stocking up on rubber boats and amphibious vehicles and relocating people living near waterways.

"Something similar happened last year in June with Typhoon Frank. It slammed into Panay and that was the worst weather experienced in memory in Panay. And that typhoon caused damages of P17 billion, which was the largest damage of a single typhoon. Normally, all the 22 typhoons that hit the country, they total to P15 billion to P16 billion a year and I was saying that was a warning that we're entering the global age of climate change and the government should be preparing for this," he said.

"Ondoy" is the third extreme weather disturbance to hit the Philippines in the past few years following Typhoon Milenyo in 2006 and Typhoon Frank in 2008. The storm killed at least 240 people and left nearly half a million more homeless after massive floods hit Central Luzon.

Weather experts said Ondoy poured more rain on Manila and surrounding regions in nine hours on Saturday than the amount Hurricane Katrina dumped on New Orleans in 2005.

The ferocity of the storm shocked even seasoned experts in this Southeast Asian country where an average 20 typhoons hit every year, but they said it continued a recent pattern of unusually bad weather.

Civil defense chief Anthony Golez and the country's chief weather forecaster, Prisco Nilo, said they were puzzled by "strange" changes in the behavior of the typhoons that struck the country over the past two years.

In April, which is supposed to be a summer month for the Philippines, three typhoons hit the country, with one of the storms triggering a landslide that killed 250 people south of the capital, Golez said.

The typhoons also deviated from their traditional paths during the month of June, traversing the northern and central parts of the main Luzon island for the first time.

"When you try to scientifically observe the data... we will find this year and last year as very strange years, and we can only presuppose that this is due to climate change," Golez said.

"We can't just blame this on the rain. We know this is the worst deluge in 40 years. We know there is climate change happening, there is no debate about that," Greenpeace campaigner Mark Dia said on local television.

"This is just a glimpse of what will happen. This is not even a super typhoon. We need to be prepared. This is just a taste of things to come. We need to have more preparations and we need to factor in climate change."

More doom for the poor

UN climate chief Yvo de Boer said Monday that devastating floods in the Philippines highlighted the need for the world to agree on a global warming pact by a December deadline.

"One of the reasons why countries have gathered here is to ensure the frequency and severity of those kinds of extreme weather events decreases as a result of ambitious climate change policy," de Boer said.

Delegates at the talks are still trying to thrash out a draft text for the Copenhagen meeting, with major disagreements on the two key issues of cutting emissions of greenhouse gases and meeting the associated costs.

The talks follow last week's UN climate summit in New York and a G20 meeting in Pittsburgh, which failed to break the deadlock.

Meanwhile, Jose Bersales, humanitarian and emergency affairs director at charity World Vision, warned that the Philippine storm was likely a taste of more doom for the world's poorest, who often are the least prepared for storms.

"This has to be a wake-up call for the world as it prepares for the climate change talks in Copenhagen later this year," Bersales said.

World Vision quoted recent forecasts by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that tropical cyclones would become more intense, have stronger peak wind speeds and heavier precipitation.

This phenomenon would have a disproportionate impact on the Philippines, it said.

With 43 percent of the population, or 36 million people, living on less than two dollars a day and with only one doctor for every 1,700 people, the impact of major disasters on the Philippines will become more devastating, it said.

And with an archipelagic coastline of 36,289 kilometres (22,499 miles) the country is vulnerable to rising sea levels, another consequence of climate change, the charity added.

"Millions in the Philippines must be helped to prepare for worsening wind storm disasters," the charity said.

Research by British charity Oxfam showed that the number of people affected by climate crises worldwide was projected to rise 54 percent to 375 million over the next six years.

Gov't study foresaw flood

Architect Palafox Jr., meanwhile, said the Philippine government was warned 32 years ago that ceding control of urban development may have adverse consequences, such as the devastation experienced by the metropolis on Saturday.

“Some are saying it’s [the flooding of key Metropolitan Manila areas] an act of God. It’s not. It’s neglect on the part of the government,” Palafox Jr. said in a BusinessMirror interview.

In the document sent by Palafox, the Metro Manila Transport, Land Use and Development Planning Project (Mmetroplan) already cited the Marikina Valley as among the areas deemed “unsuitable for development.”

The area that includes the city of Marikina were among those that sustained the most damage, according to news reports. In one hard-hit site alone, Provident Village, TV reports said 58 bodies had already been recovered, presumably people who never had time to leave their homes as floodwaters rose too quickly.

“Development should be restricted by the application of controls in three major areas—in the Marikina Valley, the western shores of Laguna de Bay, and the Manila Bay coastal area to the north of Manila,” said the report submitted in July 1977 to then-Public Works and Highways chief Alfredo Juinio.

“We’ve told government all along [that] this would happen because of the flooding [in] the same month in 1970,” Palafox said.

He said he was working for the government then when he and a group of researchers undertook this World Bank-funded study on a land-use plan that was finalized by Hong Kong-based consulting firm Freeman Fox and Associates.

Palafox cited a recommendation from the study that the government should monitor the Marikina Riverbank so that the water would not reach 90 meters. Likewise, no structure should have been allowed within nine meters from the riverbank, he added.

“Dahil hindi sinunod ’yun, parang massacre ang nangyari [Because the recommendation was not heeded, what occurred was virtually a massacre],” he said.

'Unsuitable for development'

The three-volume report also noted that “urban development is spreading into [these] areas which are, in their present state, unsuitable for development—either because they are low-lying and liable to flooding, or because development is without adequate facilities for the treatment and disposal of sewage [the norm in Manila] and so will continue to contribute to the severe pollution of areas, such as Laguna de Bay.”

The study added: “The unsuitable areas for development, where pressures are nevertheless considerable, are primarily the flat coastal areas to the north where extensive areas are liable to flooding and where increased pressures for reclamation are likely to further exacerbate this problem.”

Another is “the Marikina Valley, to the east, where the land is liable to flooding and where development with inadequate provision for the treatment and disposal of sewage is contributing to the severe pollution of Laguna de Bay and where flooding is a problem in the adjacent areas.”

Finally, the study said the pressure for development, but requiring control, includes “the western shores of Laguna de Bay where development without adequate facilities for the treatment and disposal of sewage is contributing to the severe pollution of Laguna de Bay and where flooding is a problem in the adjacent areas.”

“In order to avoid development contributing to longer-term flooding and water pollution, it is necessary that the short-term development is restricted in these areas. Only when remedial measures to deal with the problems have been implemented, should the development of these areas proceed on a significant scale,” the study said.

“Lessons are to be learned, for sure, but these have been taught three decades ago,” Palafox said. With reports from Agence France-Press and BusinessMirror