Doppler radar that could have predicted volume of Ondoy’s rainwater to come in December yet

MANILA - If Doppler radars were in place before a rain-heavy typhoon like Ondoy hit Luzon last weekend, the fatalities could not have reached 280, and the damages on infrastructure and agriculture almost P5 billion, critics of the weather bureau are saying.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has been saying that, too—for the last 5 years.

The Doppler is an instrument that can monitor the intensity and volume of rainfall, and could have warned the country’s meteorologists and authorities that Ondoy would be dumping a month’s worth of rain in just 6 hours. Precautions could have been taken, and early evacuation conducted.

Yet in a country that experiences an average of 20 tropical depressions, storms, and typhoons a year, the first brand new Doppler radar will be installed by December yet—5 years after PAGASA requested for it, and about 20 years after other countries first used such instrument for weather forecasting.

PAGASA Director Prisco Nilo told Newsbreak that, with a Doppler radar, his agency could have issued flood bulletins that would identify flood-prone areas, since their equipment can already gauge the volume of water that may pour into areas like Metro Manila.

Typhoon Ondoy left 80 percent of Metro Manila—especially the cities of Marikina, Manila, and Pasig—under water. The municipalities of Cainta, San Mateo, Angono, and Tanay in Rizal province were submerged. The floods displaced more than 400,000 people, and killed 280 people.

Limited predictions
Nilo admitted that the current weather monitoring system on which Metro Manila depends is not capable of calculating the rate of rainfall in millimeter per hour. And it’s located in Baler, Aurora, some 100 kilometers from Manila.

At present, warning signals for the Metro Manila area come from a weather satellite receiving system in Baler. The system is limited to making “indicative predictions,” like figuring the gustiness of the wind, the strength of the rain, and cloudiness.

PAGASA began using weather satellites in the 1980s, and has been regularly upgrading them when new technology becomes available. Recently, it spent around P5 million for the system’s enhancement.

“We don’t have a radar right now covering Metro Manila. The nearest radar is located in Baler, Aurora, which cannot reach us. We are looking into issuing flood bulletins every now and then when the Doppler radar is already installed,” Nilo explained, following the statement of Albay Governor Joey Salceda that the disaster could have been mitigated had PAGASA also issued flood warnings.

There are currently 5 operational radars located in Aparri in Cagayan, Baguio City, Baler in Aurora, Virac in Catanduanes, and Guiuan in Eastern Samar.

The old radar in Baler was recently upgraded into Doppler. However, this radar can only monitor the provinces in Northern and Central Luzon.

P100 million each
Nilo said the Doppler radar, a brand new one, that can monitor the areas of Metro Manila, Batangas, and Laguna, is expected to be installed in Subic in Zambales before the year ends.

PAGASA is procuring 5 brand new Doppler radars. Each radar will entail a cost of P100 million, to include the construction of the facility that will house the radar and the access road to the facility.

The funds for 3 Dopplers came from the President’s calamity fund, and those for 2 more came from the Department of Science and Technology.

The 5 Dopplers will be installed in Subic, Tagaytay City, Mactan City, Surigao del Sur, and Tampakan in South Cotabato.

PAGASA is also discussing with the Japan International Cooperation Agency possible funding for 3 more Doppler radars to replace the radars in Catanduanes, Cagayan, and Eastern Samar.

Doppler radars have been used for weather forecasting in developed countries like the United States since the 1980s or early 1990s. In the US, even some broadcast stations have their own Doppler radars for their weather news. Our neighboring countries—like Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thailand—adopted the new technology a few years after it was introduced.

Aurora, Quezon tragedies
Before PAGASA decided that it had to shift to Doppler radars, the Philippines had faced 5 destructive typhoons from 1990 to 1998. Typhoon Uring devastated Ormoc City in Leyte in 1991, claiming some 8,000 lives and damaged P1 billion worth of properties. After that, Super Typhoon Rosing battered Metro Manila and neighboring provinces, killing 936 people and causing P11 billion in damages to properties.

In November of 2004, heavy rains triggered flashfloods and massive landslides in the provinces of Aurora and Quezon, leaving more than 1,700 people dead and P12 billion worth of properties damaged.

The tragedy finally made PAGASA propose to the national government funding for the purchase of Doppler radars. In 2005, in fact, the National Disaster and Coordinating Council issued an action plan, which placed the improvement of PAGASA’s facilities as a top priority.

The funds didn’t come immediately, however. It was only in June 2008 that PAGASA was able to award a contract for the procurement of 5 Doppler radars. It was awarded to Enterprise Electronics Corporation, a US-based manufacturer of meteorological radars.

The agreement is for Enterprise Electronics to deliver the radars in June 2010. Nilo explained that Doppler radars are not “out of the shelf” equipment, and manufacturing takes around 18 months to finish.

PAGASA, however, requested for at least 1 unit to be installed before the year ends, considering what happened because of Typhoon Ondoy.

As PAGASA waited for the Dopplers, from 2005 to 2008, 47 typhoons hit the country. Typhoon Reming in 2006 killed more than 700 people and damaged P5.5 billion properties in Bicol. The same year, Typhoon Milenyo hit the region. More than 174 people died and P6.4 billion worth of properties were destroyed.

This year, there have 16 weather disturbances, so far. Seven of them were typhoons, including Ondoy that flooded Metro Manila and surrounding provinces, and Pepeng that threatened Northern Luzon with very strong winds.  - Newsbreak