PAGASA track for Typhoon Pepeng (international code name Parma) as of 2 p.m., 04 October 2009

MANILA – The state weather agency has forecast that Typhoon “Pepeng” may linger in the Philippines longer than earlier expected and warned of landslides and floods especially in the northern and western parts of Luzon.

“From almost outside the Philippine area of responsibility, it will make a recurvature and possibly pass the northern portion of Luzon for the second time,” said Nathaniel Cruz, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) weather specialist, in a briefing on the typhoon Sunday 5 p.m..

Philippine area in colorized infrared image, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, MTSAT image :30 p.m. Oct. 4, 2009 (Philippine time)

Cruz said the center of “Pepeng” was located, as of 4:00 p.m., to be 150 kilometers north northwest of Laoag City and remains with maximum sustained winds of 120 kilometers per hour near center and gustiness of 150 kph.

He said the typhoon has remained “almost stationary” but was slowly moving in a west northwest direction.

“U-turn”

He described however that PAGASA forecasts the typhoon to make a “looping action” and make a counterclockwise “U-turn,” He said the typhoon may again make landfall probably in the northwestern part of Luzon before exiting the Philippines.

The PAGASA bulletin issued at 5 p.m. shows that the typhoon would remain 210 kilometers northwest of Laoag City by Monday afternoon, 230 kms north northwest of Laoag City by Tuesday afternoon and 240 kms west of Laoag City by Wednesday afternoon.

When asked how long the typhoon would affect the country, Cruz said: “Most likely it may be longer than 3 days… Di pa tapos ang (bagyong) Pepeng.”

Typhoon Melor

Cruz said that the movement of “Pepeng” is being affected by Typhoon "Melor” which is located 600 kilometers east of the Philippine area of responsibility.

Pepeng cannot move toward northeast and out of the country due to Typhoon Melor, Cruz had also earlier said.

“Melor is moving fast… nearer us. So, this typhoon is preventing Pepeng from moving towards east. That’s why, for the next several days, we will expect typhoon Pepeng to remain almost stationary in the extreme Northern Luzon,” Cruz explained in a previous briefing.

Cruz, in the 5 p.m. briefing, said Melor is expected to enter the Philippine area of responsibility by Monday late afternoon or late evening and would then be named “Quedan.”

He said “Melor” has sustained wind intensity of 195 kph and is moving 24 kph west northwest.

Colorized infrared image, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, MTSAT image 4:30 p.m. Oct. 4, 2009 (Philippine time) showing Typhoon "Pepeng" over Northern Luzon and Typhoon "Melor"

He said however that Melor is not expected to make landfall in the Philippines and will likely “move towards north then northeast and out of the Philippine area of responsibility.”

When “Melor” does take a northeast direction, Cruz said, that is when “Pepeng” is expected to also move on a northeast direction.

He however discounted the possibility of “Pepeng” and “Melor merging into one typhoon.

Expect floods and landslides

With “Pepeng” staying longer in the Philippines and possibly making a second landfall in northwestern Luzon after Wednesday afternoon, Cruz warned of floods and landslides covered by “Pepeng’s” wide swathe of clouds.

“Tuloy ang stormy weather sa northwestern Luzon,” said Cruz.

He said the recorded rainfall from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. Sunday in Laoag City in Ilocos Norte has already reached 201 mm while and 169 mm in Vigan in Ilocos Sur.

He said that their station in Laoag City reported being hit by sustained 120 kph winds. He also said that the PAGASA station was almost hit by a “flying guardhouse” carried by the strong gusts due to “Pepeng.”

Public Storm Signal No. 3 remains over Batanes Group of Islands, Northern Cagayan, Babuyan and Calayan Islands, Ilocos Norte and Apayao. Storm Signal No. 2 meanwhile is still hoisted over Ilocos Sur, Abra, Kalinga and the rest of Cagayan. Strom Signal No. 1 remains over La Union, Benguet, Mt. Province and Northern Isabela.

Cruz warned residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under Signal Nos. 3, 2 and 1 especially in the western and northern parts of Luzon to expect more rains and advised residents to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under Signal Nos. 2 and 3 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the typhoon, PAGASA added in its bulletin.

He said that the rest of Luzon including Metro Manila which is still recovering from floods of Tropical Storm “Ondoy” would experience cloudiness and rain “but not as bad as Ondoy.”