MANILA - Based on "Lupit's" (local name: "Ramil") current speed and direction, the typhoon will hit northern Luzon, as shown in all typhoon track models used by weather bureau Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). 

"All the models we are using have a unanimous forecast that the typhoon would hit northern Luzon," PAGASA administrator Prisco Nilo reported during a National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) briefing on Saturday afternoon.

As of 4 p.m., PAGASA's website said the typhoon has slowed down further, moving northwest at a speed of 13 kilometers per hour (kph). It was spotted 940 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora, packing stronger center winds of 140 kph and gusts of up to 170 kph.

Nilo said the worst-case scenario, based on the worst-case global forecast system model of the United States, is that the typhoon's rainband will continue to grow bigger as it moves closer to the country.

This means that when Ramil makes landfall, it will slow down further and bring more rains over the northern provinces, he added.

He said the expected landfall of the typhoon in northern Luzon is Wednesday night (October 21).

Nilo said the typhoon will most likely cross northern Luzon provinces for three days, from October 21 to October 23 (Friday).

Areas under threat

He said that before the typhoon starts its movement away from land, its rains would put the Cordillera Administrative Region and Pangasinan "under threat."

The Cordilleras suffered the most number of deaths during the onslaught of tropical storm Pepeng (Parma) due to landslides, while 38 towns of Pangasinan were hit by deep floodwaters.

By Saturday (October 25), Nilo said the typhoon would already move out and head towards sea.

Nilo said there were other US forecast models that predict a variety of Ramil's movements.

He said only one of the models predicts that Ramil will head straight to Taiwan. This scenario is still remote based on the typhoon's current movement.

The PAGASA administrator said they have been closely monitoring Ramil's movement since October 15 so as to warn critical areas as earliest as possible.

He said dams along waterways in northern Luzon have been spilling since Friday to give the reservoirs enough buffer to absorb Ramil's predicted heavy rainfall.

The weather bureau's dam monitoring indicated that San Roque dam's managers, who have been blamed for the massive flooding in Pangasinan, have increased its water release from 620 cubic meters per second at 6 a.m. to 768 cms at 4 p.m.

As of 4 p.m., two gates of Angat dam were releasing 234 cms of water; Ipo dam at 315.4 cms; Ambuklao, 120 cms; Binga, 295 cms; Pantabangan, 220 cms; and, Magat, 676 cms.