2 analysts say 'Erap magic' won't work again

MANILA - Dismissing a Palace warning that he is barred from running again in May 2010, former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada on Wednesday declared to thousands of his supporters gathered in Tondo in Manila that he will again run for the presidency.

“Kaya po tinatanggap ko ang hamon at hiling ng ating mga kababayan upang ibalik ang dangal ng mga api, ng mga masang Pilipino, upang ibalik ang pag-asa sa mga mahihirap, upang ibalik ang tinig ng masang Pilipino. Kaya't ako, sumusumpa ako, na ako si Joseph Ejercito Estrada, ay lalahok sa susunod na halalan upang muling maglingkod sa masang Pilipino bilang Pangulo ng Republika ng Pilipinas,” said Estrada in a rally at Plaza Hernandez in Tondo.

Estrada, who is also an actor, won the presidency in 1998, but was ousted in a military-backed civilian revolt in January 2001, leading to the assumption of President Arroyo.

“This is the last performance of my life. And I will not fail you. Ito pong laban na ito ang magiging huling laban sa pelikula ng aking buhay. Nguni't ang magiging bida dito ay hindi ako kung hindi ang masang Pilipino,” said Estrada.

Estrada also announced his running mate will be Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay.

“Ikinagagalak ko ring ipaalam na ang aming napiling maging susunod na bise presidente ay ang natatanging alkalde na kinikilalang isa sa pinakamagaling sa ating bansa,” Estrada told his supporters, citing Binay’s records and achievements as chief executive of the country’s premiere financial district.

Political party, Senatorial ticket

The former president also announced that he will run under the banner of the United Opposition (UNO) coalition of his political party, Puwersa ng Masang Pilipino and Partido ng Demokratikong Pilipino-Laban or PDP-Laban.

He said that those who will be included in the senatorial lineup would be Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, his reelectionist son Senate Pro Tempore Jose “Jinggoy” Estrada, NBN-ZTE whistleblower Jose “Joey” de Venecia III, detained Brig. Gen. Danilo Lim, Makati City 1st district Rep. Teodoro “Teddy Boy” Locsin, Ilocos Norte Rep. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Aquillino “Koko” Pimentel III.

Estrada said Pimentel was included in the lineup even though he has yet to decide if he would run due to a pending protest against Sen. Juan Miguel Zubiri in the 2007 elections.

He also said the guest candidates who would be adopted are Agusan Del Sur Rep. Rodolfo 'Ompong' Plaza and Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago.

In a 40-minute speech, Estrada laid out his political and economic platform and defended his record as president. He also criticized the government of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and promised to continue programs to help the poor.

Estrada told Reuters in an interview last month he would run in the May 2010 election to clear his name and leave a legacy as "the man who championed the cause of the masses."

In an interview after his announcement on Wednesday, Estrada also said he was overwhelmed by the number of people who attended his rally. Manila police estimated the crowd to be 10,000.

2 analysts doubt 'Erap magic' will work again

Two political experts, meanwhile, doubt former President Joseph Estrada can still work the so-called "Erap magic" that gave him close to 11 million votes when he ran for president in 1998.

Political Science Prof. Edwin Tayao of the University of Sto. Tomas doubts Estrada's ratings in recent surveys, particularly since Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III of the Liberal Party announced his intention to run for president, would still peak.

"Whether we like it or not, we've already had a taste of Erap. So that will be part of the choice of the people. Whether that will translate to the same popularity is another question," Tayao told ANC on Wednesday.

Atty. Edwin Lacierda, constitutional law professor of Pamantasan ng Lungsod ng Maynila and Eastern University Institute of Law agreed.

"For the longest time, nagsu-survey, laging kasama sya. Whether he declared or not, alam ng tao tatakbo siya. Hanggang doon na lang numbers niya. Tapos pumasok si Noynoy, biglang bagsak numbers niya. What does it say? It says that kinain na ni Noynoy iyong preference for Erap. (Estrada was always included in surveys. The people knew he was going to run whether he declared or not. His numbers will stay the same. Then Noynoy came in, his numbers suddenly went down. Preference for Erap has transferred to Noynoy.)," Lacierda said.

Lacierda called Noynoy the "game-changer."

"The entry of Noynoy really changed the whole scenario. (Nacionalista Party’s Sen. Manuel ) Villar was doing well. Look at his numbers right now. It seemed it has peaked," he explained.

Tayao and Lacierda added that it would be hard for Estrada to shake off the perception that he was corrupt while he was in Malacañang.

"So talagang kahit sabihin niyang gusto kong ituloy campaign ko para sa mahihirap, nakita nating kung ano'ng klase ang Cabinet niya (Even if he says he wants to continue his campaign for the poor, we've already seen the kind of Cabinet he had.)," Lacierda said.

Barred due to Arroyo pardon?

A Palace official said on Wednesday that President Arroyo's grant of pardon to Joseph Estrada in 2007 contains a pre-condition that bars the former president from running again in May 2010.

Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita told Palace reporters the pardon has a provision which says: "Whereas Joseph Ejercito Estrada has publicly committed to no longer seek any elective position or office."

Ermita believes that since this is a "whereas" clause, Estrada is prevented from running again for the presidency or from any public post.

Estrada agreed to the pardon after he was convicted and sentenced to life imprisonment for plunder or large-scale corruption in 2007 following a six-year trial. He was charged with taking bribes from gambling lords and stealing from state coffers.

However, the grant of pardon also restores Estrada's civil and political rights, which means he can vote and seek an elective post.

The pardon says: "In view hereof and pursuant to the authority conferred upon me by the Constitution, I hereby grant executive clemency to Joseph Ejercito Estrada, convicted of plunder and imposed a penalty of reclusion perpetua. He is hereby restored his civil and political rights."

Ermita said it will be up to the courts to settle this legal issue.

But Estrada, in an interview, reiterated his civil and political rights were restored in the "dispositive portion" of the pardon. “If I can vote, I can be voted upon,” he said.

Constitutional ban?

There is also the question of whether Estrada is eligible to run again because of a constitutional ban on a president seeking a second term. Estrada is convinced he is not covered by the ban because he did not complete his term.

His bid will almost certainly be challenged in court once he formally registers in November.

An Estrada ally, former Ambassador Ernesto Maceda, said the former president is eligible.

"Kaya nga sa Constitution, ‘The President’ at hindi ‘A President’, meaning the president ay iyong incumbent o nakaupong presidente. Iyon ang hindi puwedeng tumakbo muli para hindi magamit ang vast resources ng gubyerno," said Maceda.

Maceda also said Estrada’s second run would not also be considered a re-election.

"A re-election ay tuloy-tuloy na pagkandidato ng isang nakaupong presidente seeking another term.... Erap is running again after so many years.... Therefore he is not seeking re-election but running again," said Estrada’s close adviser.

This view was however contradicted by Professor Carlos Medina of the Ateneo Law School.

".. Pero sinasabi naman sa Saligang Batas ay ‘any re-election’, samakatuwid.... lahat ng klase ng pagtakbong muli bilang presidente ng isang dating presdiente, bawal,” Medina told ABS-CBN News Channel.

Binay is running mate

Binay, meanwhile, formally accepted Estrada's offer to be his running mate in the 210 polls.

Binay said he has an edge over the other vice-presidential aspirants due to his track record in making Makati a prosperous city, after serving as its chief local executive for nearly 20 years.

He added he will campaign for empowerment of local governments, which, he believes, is the key to a progressive nation. He will also focus on the problems of poverty, lack of jobs, and fighting corruption.

Although he will be up against popular senators like Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas II of the Liberal Party, and possibly Loren Legarda of the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC), Binay said he has the advantage when it comes to experience in governance.

He said the Senate is basically a debating club, while local officials like him are involved in enforcement of laws and implementation of projects.

Strong support from poor

Estrada still commands a sizeable following among the poor and those living in the countryside, who see in him the romantic folk hero of his box office successes, battling the rich and the corrupt. His nickname is Erap, a play on the word Pare, or buddy.

But Estrada remains a thorn in the side of the powerful church and of business leaders, who have worried about fiscal profligacy during his term in office and tales of a "midnight cabinet" of drinking and gambling buddies who influenced policy.

Traders have warned that prospects of an Estrada victory closer to the elections could spook financial markets.

"We want to have a new leader, not the old one, especially with a tainted record," said Astro del Castillo, managing director of the First Grade Holdings brokerage. "Investors will shy away if there is a candidate who has a poor track record and is not trusted by business."

Estrada has said the three main problems of the country that must be addressed are: ending insurgencies by Muslim and left-wing rebels, controlling the population increase, and removing corruption in government.

He has aged since his term in office. He said he smokes a pack a day, and enjoys French wine. Renowned for having a string of mistresses, Estrada has fathered 12 children.

Asked with how many women, he told Reuters last month: "That's private property, no trespassing." But he added: "I have borne children out of wedlock. My wife is not complaining, so you don't have to complain.

Winning next year's election would be a vindication, he said.

"One more chance and that's it. It's really the last performance of my life. I have no more ambition in life except that when I exit, I be remembered as the man who championed the cause of the masses." -- reports from Willard Cheng, Sheryll Mundo, ABS-CBN News; Ayen Karingal, ANC; and, Reuters