MANILA - Since he was granted pardon by President Arroyo, former President Joseph Estrada has promised to unite the anti-administration forces and come up with a common  presidential candidate for next year’s election. If he fails, he said, he would join the race.
 
Last month, he ended up further dividing the already fragmented opposition when he declared that he would throw his hat in the ring to reclaim the highest position in the land.
 
“This is the last performance of my life and I will not fail you,”” said Estrada before his cheering supporters in Tondo, Manila, his birthplace and bailiwick, as he vowed to reclaim the presidency and promised to continue the pro-poor programs of his short-lived administration.
 
At his declaration rally in October, Estrada, who was ousted by a people power revolt in 2001 after an aborted impeachment trial, proved that he still knows how to charm his crowd. He started his speech by saying his ouster was caused by lies peddled and accusations made by power-hungry elites, and by thanking the people for their unwavering support.
 
“I was imprisoned for six years and six months and I was separated from my family, my friends, and from the people,” he said. At one point in his speech, he removed his glasses and asked his supporters: “O ano, pogi pa ba (Am I still handsome)?”
 
Estrada’s charisma and image as a hero in his films were instrumental in his victories when he ran for mayor of San Juan in 1969, senator in 1987, vice president in 1992 and president in 1998. In 1998, Estrada, with his campaign “Erap Para sa Mahirap (Erap for the Poor),” topped the polls in 12 of 15 regions and defeated his nearest rival, former House Speaker Jose de Venecia, by a huge margin of 6 million votes.
 
His plan to stage a political comeback, however, will not be a walk in the park, some political analysts say.
 
Legal question
 
If his attempt to reclaim the presidency is the newest storyline in his political career, then the legal questions surrounding his eligibility will be the contravida.
 
“His biggest stumbling block is the people’s perception that he might be disqualified. Every uncertainty turns off a lot of voters,” says political analyst and UP public administration professor Prospero de Vera III.
 
“People think na sayang ang boto nila since he might be disqualified,” Ateneo de Manila political science professor Benito Lim says.
 
After Estrada files his certificate of candidacy, his eligibility to run is expected to be questioned due to a provision in the 1987 Constitution that prohibits a president from seeking re-election.  The case may reach the Supreme Court, which is dominated by appointees of President Arroyo.
 
His camp, however, claims that Estrada can overcome the legal hurdles and argues that the provision applies only to sitting or incumbent president.
 
Poor votes, again
 
Estrada chose Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay, a vocal critic of the Arroyo administration, as his running mate. Their tandem, says former senator and Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) campaign manager Ernesto Maceda, has been identified with the poor, which comprises a huge chunk of the population.
 
Their experiences as local chief executives, he adds, have made them familiar with the needs of the poor. Estrada was mayor of San Juan for 17 years while Binay has served as mayor of Makati for 21 years, from 1986-1998 and from 2001 until 2010.
 
“They both served as mayors for a long time. When you are mayor, you are hands on and well-acquainted with the small problems of the poor,” Maceda says in an interview with Newsbreak. He adds that their candidates’ main challenge is to see to it that the masa vote is assured.
 
Maceda says they are confident that Estrada would still enjoy the huge support of the poor he got in 1998. “The problems we have now are still the same—lack of classrooms, more poor people and more jobless Filipinos.”
 
In various presidential fora, Estrada boasted that his administration has given the highest budget allocation for social services like education and health.
 
Political analysts, however, doubt whether Estrada could still get the same magnitude of support from the poor. De Vera and Lim say that Estrada’s support base is just “residual”. Estrada, Lim says, had more supporters in 1998 but admits he still enjoys their support.
 
“[Back in 1998], they all loved him and his movies were still fresh in their minds,” Lim says, adding that his imprisonment, conviction on plunder charges and the grant of pardon from Arroyo could have also contributed to the decline in his supporters.
 
“He was viewed as hero who can save them but he was not able to save himself and come out triumphantly,” Lim says, adding that a “pro-poor “platform has been overused and the voters have become more cynical.
 
Trailing behind
 
De Vera says that at this point of the presidential campaign in 1998, Estrada had already emerged as a front runner with a rating of 30-34%. 
 
The October 2009 survey of Pulse Asia, however, showed that Estrada only got 11 percent rating and was behind Benigno Aquino III (44%), Villar (19%) and Francis Escudero (13%). (Escudero has announced that he is quitting from the presidential race, and talks are rife that he may support Aquino).
 
From June 2009-October 2009, Estrada’s rating dropped by 8 percentage points. Other presidential aspirants’ ratings also declined mainly due to the entry of Benigno Aquino III in the presidential race. The decline in Estrada’s rating and the rise of Aquino do not bother his camp. “He [Aquino] has peaked and the Cory magic is starting to wear off,” says Maceda.
 
Estrada’s political network, de Vera says, has also weakened. He added that the former president “no longer” has a political infrastructure to talk about since some of his allies, especially at the local level, have joined other presidential aspirants.
 
The former president’s decision to run has been viewed as something that has weakened the opposition. Aside from Estrada, Villar and Aquino are also opposition candidates.
 
“His career is dead. He’s trying to make himself politically relevant by engaging in politics but his clout is dead on the national level,” de Vera says. “It’s a different story if he still get’s 20%, but he only got 11-12%.”
 
Maceda, meanwhile, says that the focus of their campaign will not be on strengthening their hold on the regions but maintaining their lead over poor voters. He adds that unlike other candidates who need deep pockets for their infomercials, Estrada does not need to boost his popularity.
 
“As former president, he does not need to be seen in many ads,” Maceda said.
 
Old issues
 
Once the campaign period starts, Estrada’s rivals may raise old issues involving him like his alleged involvement in the Dacer-Corbito murder case, his alleged links to illegal gambling, and policy decisions he made during his administration.
 
The former  president’s extra-marital affairs and support for family planning and  the legalization of jueteng—the numbers game that brought him down—do not sit well with the Catholic Church, which is perceived to have influence on voters. His camp, however, is not worried. “In 1998, the Catholic Church was against him and he still won,” Maceda says.
 
Under his administration, the country, however, made strides in its fight against Muslim separatists by capturing a major base of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. But it was also under his administration when the national government withheld a portion of the Internal Revenue Allotment, which finances the operations of local governments.
 
Tales of his “midnight cabinet” of drinking and gambling buddies, accusations that during his term he accepted commissions from corporate deals and favored some of his cronies in some business deals turn off the business sector.
 
In an interview with Probe Profiles, his son, Senator Jinggoy Estrada said that there are times the former president finds it difficult to refuse the requests of his friends: “Sometimes, he cannot say no to some friends”
 
Estrada remains unperturbed. Maceda says, “These are the issues raised by the A-B classes. Poverty is the issue of the masses.”  (Newsbreak)