MANILA - Every Wednesday, the headquarters of the Nacionalista Party (NP) of Senator Manuel “Manny” Villar at the historic Laurel House in Mandaluyong City is a beehive of activity.  

The quality and number of the crowd that gathers is impressive. Governors, congressmen, mayors, vice-mayors and some newly minted politicians poached from other political parties are sworn in by the hundreds as new members of the NP.  

The scene is not confined to the Laurel house. Reporters who have covered similar activities say that the numbers were greater in the province--in Naga City and Cavite, for instance--a show of force that is the envy of other political parties.  

Donning his trademark orange polo shirt, Villar, in a recent gathering, was in a fighting mood as he rallied his new recruits for a “new kind” of Philippine politics. He later posed for photo ops, raising the hands of new party mates.  

The scenario is enough to convince an ordinary observer that Villar is the man to beat in the May 2010 polls. No other political party, with the exception of the Liberal Party (LP), can claim that it is swiftly and vastly expanding.  

P3-B campaign fund?

The party strength of the Nacionalista Party, growing as the election nears, makes one forget that it was an almost forgotten relic. While it may be the oldest political party and has produced 8 Philippine presidents, the NP was slowly heading to oblivion—until Villar revived the party single-handedly.  

In 2003, Villar joined the NP and was named party president. It was around that time, reports say, that he nurtured dreams of becoming the next president.  

It was also around that time that he turned around his fortune from real estate, which was already in near collapse following the 1997 Asian financial crisis.  

But NP spokesman Gilbert Remulla says that the massive fortification of NP as a formidable party started only in 2007 after the mid-term polls.

Unlike other parties wracked by infighting from local allies jostling for the same positions, the NP recruitment has been easy and efficient. It helps that Villar runs NP like a CEO in the private sector.

NP coordinators are in place all over the provinces and in the regions to scout and screen possible allies.  Potential recruits are weighed based on how they can improve the NP’s drawing power.

Laguna Vice-Governor Ramil Hernandez says he left Lakas and applied with the NP “because the party was deliberate in rebuilding.” He had to wait for 3 months before he got accepted as NP member, and only after passing two interviews, one from the regional coordinator, and lastly, with the NP party committee that includes Villar’s wife, Las Piñas Rep. Cynthia Villar, and new NP member, San Juan Rep. Ronnie Zamora.  

A political analyst, who was adviser to a rival presidential aspirant, says local politicians swarm to the NP like ants to sugar because “it has the resources.”  

“In the 2007 senatorial race, Villar impressed everyone with his campaign ads, penetrating the remotest places,” the analyst says. The deluge of campaign ads showed local politicians that Villar’s camp was--and is--well oiled. 
 
Based on the 2007 election records of the Commissions on Elections, Villar was fifth in total ad expenses, supposedly spending only P72.5 million in TV, radio and newspaper ads. An AC Nielsen Monitoring showed that Villar actually was third in spending, with P88.8 million in ad spending.  

A week before the May 2007 mid-term race, Villar’s camp bought an entire week of prime time radio spots nationwide.  The last few days of the campaign period is the most desired spot because it serves as the candidate’s last hurrah to court the undecided voters.  

We talked with several new recruits to the NP camp and they all expressed hope that that manna would fall from heaven now that they have joined Villar. “The money is not there yet but we are hoping there would be,” says an aspiring vice-mayoralty candidate.

A Villar insider says that the NP honcho “easily has P3 billion” for the campaign. “I think the bulk of it would support the finances of local NP members.”  

Of course, money is not everything, or so it seems. Villar’s not so secret and lethal weapon is his wife Cynthia, who has cultivated a lot of goodwill among congressmen and local officials. 
 
Aklan vice-governor Gabrielle Quimpo, for instance, says she and Cynthia have been long time friends. “They did not have to court us. When I learned that Villar is running, it was hard to decide which candidate I would support,” Quimpo says. Quimpo was with the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino and the Lakas-NUCD before joining NP. 
 
Diverse spectrum of support

Already outflanking other aspirants in gathering the grassroots, Villar also has drawn up a diverse list of senatorial teammates aimed at drawing support from their respective command votes.  

Up North, Villar solidified his stake there with Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos in his senatorial slate. In taking in Lt. Col Ariel Querubin, his camp apparently hopes to court those who had voted for surprise 2007 senatorial winner, detained Antonio Trillanes IV. He convinced former opposition spokesman Adel Tamano to join his wagon.    

At the last minute, he included Susan 'Toots' Ople, daughter of the late Senator Blas Ople in his senatorial team. Ople is known as the father of the Labor Code. His daughter is involved in OFW projects.
 
The alliances would have been more interesting had negotiations with the extreme Left pushed through. Bayan Muna Rep. Satur Ocampo and Gabriela Rep. Liza Maza recently decided to forgo an alliance with the NP after Marcos was taken in. Ocampo and Maza, who also courted the LP for a potential alliance, are now seeking senatorial posts as independents.  

His choice of vice-presidential running mate, Senator Loren Legarda, was also strategic, aimed at widening his support base.  

Villar said Legarda was a “logical choice” for a running mate. There may be some truth to this, considering that other vice-presidential aspirants are all male. Legarda could bring in some of the “women votes.”  

But Villar’s logic was not as simple as it seemed, since Legarda was after his neck before. She was among those who staged a coup in the Senate to unseat him as Senate president.   

An NP stalwart, who vets new recruits to the party, says that Villar had actually targeted Vice President Noli de Castro, Legarda, and Senator Francis Escudero. The choice was narrowed down to Legarda and de Castro after Escudero attacked Villar’s integrity.

But then Villar had to let go of de Castro “since he has more baggage to carry.” Legarda’s skeletons in the closet “are already out in the open.” With de Castro, Villar might find himself defending a running mate instead of courting the votes at the height of the campaign,” the NP stalwart says.

Villar and de Castro enjoy a friendship that started in 2001 when they both became senators. In one Newsbreak interview, Villar said he admires de Castro’s huge masa following. 

Not by ads alone

Villar’s strategy is simple enough: expand grassroots support, gather a diverse group of potential vote getters with surname recall, and flood the airwaves with effective ads until the elections.  

In an era of media ads, Remulla says Villar would still barnstorm the country “to press hands in the traditional way.” But Remulla says his provincial stories would be select and limited. “That’s why you have the local allies, to help you with the votes.”  

He says the 2007 senatorial race showed that “media exposure for national candidates is more cost efficient. You are able to reach more people.”  

Pre-election surveys on presidential preferences appear to validate Villar’s dictum.

Villar’s survey rating (Pulse Asia )
 
October 22-30, 2009: 19%
July 28-August 10, 2009: 25%
May 4-17, 2009: 14%
February 2-15, 2009: 15%
October 14-27, 2008: 17%
July 1-14, 2008: 12%
February 21 – March 8, 2008: 9%
October 20-31 2007: 9%
 
Villar’s survey rating (Social Weather Stations)
 
September 2009: 37%
June 2009: 33%
May 2009: 29%
February 2009: 26%
December 2008: 27%
September 2008: 28%
June 2008: 25%
March 2008: 17%
December 2007: 27%
September 2007: 18%
 
From being fifth in the initial surveys, Villar’s ranking steadily rose, smashing de Castro’s and Estrada’s hold with the masa, and demolishing Legarda and Escudero’s monopoly with the youth voters. He started with a campaign on the welfare of the overseas Filipino workers conceptualized by marketing guru Greg Garcia.

In July to August this year, Pulse and SWS surveys showed Villar finally topping the surveys. “It was important to show the voters that Villar is someone they can depend on. His Sipag and Tiyaga slogan only shows his character. His OFW ad shows he is a reliable leader,” Garcia says.

The myth of heavy campaign spending, however, burst yet again with the surprise strong survey performance of Liberal Party bet Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino, which surged following the death of his mother, former President Aquino.

Suddenly, Villar, the heavy spender, was no longer the front runner. 

At the NP event where Legarda was announced as his running mate, Villar tried to see the silver lining behind the quick reversal of fortune. “At least we are narrowing the gap. There is still time,” he said.

For someone who has been running after destiny, now is not the time to give up.