The peace process with the  Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) needs someone like Manny Pacquiao if the stalled talks are to have any chance of being revived.

Although said in jest by Gus Miclat, executive director of the Initiatives for International Dialogue (IID), in the Waging Peace in the Philippines Conference held Monday at the Ateneo de Manila University, this suggestion that the peace process needs a Pacquiao-like figure indicates how bad the situation is between the government and the MILF.

"Siguro dapat si Pacquiao yung peace panel. Siguro yun ay isang creative na paraan, kunin natin si Pacquiao. Siguro sa ating peace advocacy, kumuha rin tayo ng mga champions, si Robin Padilla, Manny Pacquiao," Miclat said in an open forum following a three-hour session on the peace process with the MILF at the two-day conference sponsored by the Gaston Z. Ortigas Peace Institute. 

The talks between the government and the MILF collapsed after the Supreme Court stopped last August 4 the signing of the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain (MOAAD), which would have granted Muslims in the south an expanded homeland with wide powers.

Rogue elements of the MILF subsequently attacked Christian towns in parts of Mindanao. Both sides have since insisted on hard-line demands before talks can resume.

The renewed conflict has displaced over half a million people. Fighting between government forces and the MILF reportedly stopped during the Pacquiao-De la Hoya bout Saturday (Sunday in Manila) as soldiers watched or listened to the fight.

Nationalism and Pacquiao

Herbert Docena, a research-associate of think-tank, Focus on the Global South, said the nationalist spirit expressed by the Filipino people in supporting Pacquiao against the bigger Mexican-American Oscar de la Hoya can be tapped to support the peace process.

"It seems unthinkable that any Filipino would not be on the side of Manny Pacquiao, and this just goes to illustrate how pervasive nationalism is in our everyday lives," Docena said in the same forum. "Nationalism is a very big stumbling block, but also a very big opportunity for those of us working towards peace with justice.”

Docena said nationalism can "dispel the myth that some people are intrinsically superior."

"By making those of us who are presumed to be inferior question our perpetual subordination, by compelling us to look to those who are part of our communities as equals and deserving of solidarity and respect, by convincing us that as a collective, we can achieve goals that we cannot otherwise achieve on our own, nationalism can bring out the best in us," he explained.

No trust of GMA

Fr. Eliseo Mercado, a Catholic priest and former peace negotiator with Moro rebels, said one of the most important lessons of the peace process in the Philippines is that "to undertake a peace process with a rebel or liberation front, government needs a lot of social capital and [high] credibility rating."

This is because "in the final analysis, people accept or reject a process, as well as the result of that process, not on the basis of what is written but rather on the basis of the trustworthiness of government."

Looking back at the experiences during the first two years of the Aquino administration, Mercado said the Filipino people approved the 1987 charter "on the basis of the trustworthiness of President Corazon Aquino."

Another example: the results of the 1987 senatorial elections, where Cory "magic" allowed her political party to capture 22 out of 24 senatorial seats.

"They were elected on the basis again of the trustworthiness and the social capital in 1987 of President Corazon Aquino," Mercado said.

No social capital

He said the stalled peace talks between the government and the MILF following the controversy over the MOAAD, is partly due to the lack of trust between the MILF and the Arroyo government.

"This is also the crux of the mater, the whole fiasco is the issue of social capital and the credibility of the government," Mercado said. "Whether we like it or not...the Arroyo government has a bankrupt social capital and a trust rating of below zero."

Based on the September 24-27, 2008 Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey of President Arroyo’s approval ratings, the public's net satisfaction rating of Arroyo was minus 27. It has been below zero since October 2004 or more than four years already.

Mercado said "any peace process cannot be sustained when the government that negotiates has a bankrupt social capital and a trustworthiness that is below zero."

Role of stakeholders

Aside from the importance of social capital in the peace process, Mercado said another lesson is that the peace process "must be inclusive of the major stakeholders."

"This does not mean number or quantity. Rather, it refers to quality of persons and stakeholders that perhaps will lead the groundswell for support both for the process, as well as for the substance of the agreement. Without this build-up of the groundswell of quality leaders and quality stakeholders who are on board in the process, it would be very difficult to sustain any agreement or even to sustain any process, whether in the southern Philippines or nationwide,” he said.

The third lesson Mercado enumerated is the importance of a "shared analysis of the problem and a shared analysis also of the debacle of the peace process."

He said the accusations that have been hurled following the collapse of the peace talks "show that we don't have a shared analysis of what happened in the MOAAD.” 

Fourthly, Mercado also stressed the need to have all four gatekeepers in Muslim Mindanao--the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), MILF, traditional leaders who occupy the local government, and the ulama or religious leaders--to have "not necessarily a complete unity but a modicum or working unity for any sustainable peace process."

The fifth lesson is that the indigenous peoples of Mindanao should be "part and parcel of the equation." Mercado said the Lumads felt that in the MOAAD, they were not part of the equation.

Role of peace brokers

The sixth lesson, according to Mercado, is the importance of the peace brokers.

"We speak here not only of impartiality of the mediators but their capacity also to hold parties to the process on the basis of their commitment and goodwill to attain lasting peace," he said.

Mercado said questions have been raised about "Malaysian brokership of the southern Philippines peace process." Malaysia has a territorial dispute with the Philippines over Sabah. He said the government is now considering "expanding and consolidating the role of mediators in southern Philippines.”

Malaysia temporarily pulled out of the International Monitoring Team, which monitors the ceasefire between the government and the MILF, last month.

And lastly, Mercado said the seventh lesson is the important role of international support to the peace process.

“Our capacity to generate international support to the process, international cooperation, especially the major political players, makes or breaks any agreement,” he said.  International cooperation should “not only happen in the post-conflict reconstruction, but right at the very beginning of the process, serving also as guarantors of whatever agreement that the protagonists would sign.”