From survivor to lame duck: GMA in 2009
By Marites Danguilan Vitug, abs-cbnNEWS.com/Newsbreak | 12/23/2008 9:30 AM
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Editor’s note: This kicks off our series of year beginners. In each, we try to answer the question, What’s next? We will be covering various fields ranging from politics to entertainment.
When the former defense secretary and legal counsel of President Arroyo recently marched on Ayala Avenue to protest administration moves to amend the Constitution and extend the term of Mrs. Arroyo, it was clear that the gulf between the President and her original allies has become so vast.
It was the first time Avelino “Nonong” Cruz joined an anti-Arroyo protest since he resigned as defense secretary in 2006 over policy differences with the President.
That a former friend and ally joined the ranks of the opposition merely dramatizes the public distrust with President Arroyo, a high of 51 percent as of October 2008, Pulse Asia data show. The President has already made history: She is the most distrusted and unpopular among post-Marcos presidents. Almost half of the population (46 percent) disapproves of her performance.
Yet she has survived all threats to her presidency.
On that pre-Christmas day in December, the opposition gathered a slim crowd to show disgust and discontent.
In Congress, efforts to unseat her have failed miserably. In early December, only a handful, 21 members of Congress, voted to impeach President Arroyo. They were overwhelmed by the majority, 183, who junked the complaint.
The results were expected. A week before, the House justice committee decided that the impeachment complaint stood on wobbly ground.
This scene in Congress has lost its novelty as it is the fourth attempt to impeach the President. Every year since 2005, the feeble opposition has failed to unseat her. One thing they did, though, was to keep the President edgy—but only for a while.
The Constitution says that only one impeachment complaint should be filed in a year. As such, the President is immune from ouster attacks once the complaint is quashed, at least for the rest of the year.
Streets and Congress
These two scenes from 2008—one on the streets and the other in the halls of Congress—tell us what we can expect in 2009: President Arroyo, in her last year in office, will continue to rule without major threats to her position. She will sleep peacefully in 2009—but only as far as impeachment complaints are concerned.
However, Mrs. Arroyo will start to be a lame-duck president as aspirants for the presidency start their informal campaign and realign forces to win in 2010.
We will expect a lot of noise when election fever rises. Pollster Ana Maria Tabunda observed after the May Congressional elections last year that interest in the elections did not wane as sights were trained early on the 2010 elections.
A lame duck by then, President Arroyo can do two things: she can quietly go about her work as attention will be on the presidential wannabes. Or she will be fending off attacks and criticisms of her administration from presidential contenders.
Moreover, the President appears to be buying insurance. She has placed her close allies to head vital anti-corruption bodies: Ombudsman Merceditas Gutierrez and Sandiganbayan Presiding Justice Diosdado Peralta.
She has also seven vacancies to fill up in the Supreme Court in 2009. This means that she will have a full sweep of the Court by the time she bows out.
Observers say she wants to be sure that any cases that will be filed against her when she steps down will not prosper. Opposition groups have said that they will file corruption cases against her as soon as she leaves office.
New coalition
The ruling coalition is expected to unravel and seek out new partners who are most likely to win as various political parties gear up for 2010. House Speaker Prospero Nograles told us when he had just assumed his new post early this year that Lakas, being a pragmatic party, would like to ally with potential winners in 2010.
The opposition, for its part, will continue to be fractious, unable to unite behind a common presidential candidate. That could be the cause of its defeat should the administration field a highly popular candidate like Vice President Noli de Castro.
It is unclear if the victory of Barack Obama in the US will impact on our election campaign. Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero wants to translate the Obama fever here, capitalizing on the youth factor. Escudero will turn 40 next year.
He is keen on running in 2010 but that will depend on how he fares at the polls, he said. His party, the Nationalist People’s Coalition, is expected to choose its candidate based on popularity ratings. At the moment, it’s a toss up between Escudero and Loren Legarda, also with the NPC.
Credible stimulus package
On top of the political noise, the President will be presiding over a serious economic slowdown, her biggest challenge next year. The effects of the global financial crisis will continue to be felt as jobs will be lost here and overseas.
President Arroyo has yet to unveil a comprehensive stimulus and confidence-building package to prime the economy. Ralph Recto, economic planning secretary, recently announced that government will increase infrastructure spending to provide jobs and send consumers to the malls.
The problem is: a skeptical public may dismiss it as a vehicle for the ruling party to raise funds for elections in May 2010. Thus, President Arroyo has to make sure the stimulus package is carried out by a credible team.
