MANILA – Weather bureau PAGASA on Tuesday said tropical depression “Tino” continues to bear down on the country but is expected to weaken in the coming days.

As of 4 a.m., Tino was located 150 kilometers east northeast of Casiguran, Aurora and moving at 11 kph in a west southwestward direction. The storm was packing 55 kph winds near the center.

“Not only [is it] slow but it is really struggling to maintain its strength as it is being affected by the surge of the northeast monsoon,” PAGASA weather branch chief Nathaniel Cruz said in an interview on “News At 8.”

“Well the way things are going, we do not expect this tropical disturbance to maintain strength… we expect this tropical depression to further weaken and maybe to become a low pressure area (LPA),” he added.

Storm signal No. 1 has been raised in Isabela, Mt Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, La Union, Pangasinan, Aurora and Nueva Ecija.

Cruz, however, said even if “Tino” is forecast to make landfall on Tuesday, “it is the effect of the northeast monsoon that is affecting the northern part of Luzon.”

“So there are areas not under any public storm warning signal but are experiencing strong winds and rough seas and this has something to do with the northeast monsoon actually,” he explained.

The weather bureau’s forecast outlook stated that “Tino” could be in the vicinity of Baguio City Wednesday morning. On Thursday morning, it would be at 200 km west of Dagupan City, Pangasinan and on Friday, 460 km west southwest of Dagupan City.

The weather bulletin noted that the eastern section of Central Luzon will have rains and gusty winds.The rest of Central and Northern Luzon, meantime, will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms.

The rest of Northern Luzon will have occasional rains and gusty winds due to the surge of the northeast monsoon.

The rest of the Philippine archipelago, on the other hand, will be partly cloudy to at times cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Precaution

PAGASA advised residents near mountain slopes and in low-lying areas to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Cruz said those living in coastal areas, especially fisher folk, should remain alert because of the strong northeasterly wind flow.

He said such wind flow is “really responsible for strong winds and rough seas being experienced now not only in coastal areas of Cagayan Valley where the center of tropical depression Tino is located but also in the Ilocos region facing the South China Sea.”

PAGASA also issued a gale warning, saying that strong to gale force winds are expected to affect the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon.

Fishing boats and other small sea crafts were advised no to go out into the sea. Lager sea vessels, meantime, were alerted against big waves.

Not the last

Cruz stated that the country may brace for a couple more weather disturbances after “Tino.”

“If we will look at the climatology normal occurrence of tropical cyclones, most likely Tino is not the last. So we do expect at least 1 or 2 tropical cyclones to enter the PAR up to  December,” he said.

“And again based from normal occurrence, these tropical cyclones, normally upon entering the PAR, these disturbances cross the Philippines either via Visayas or Southern Luzon, and that means including Metro Manila.”

Meanwhile, Cruz said the effects of the surge of the northeast monsoon will carry on.

“It will be responsible for strong rains and rough seas. This will continue even if Tino weakens into an LPA and people might be surprised that even though there’s no tropical depression around, they keep on experiencing strong winds," he said.

Cruz also said that the surge of the northeast monsoon is a larger mass compared to “Tino.”

“It is colder and drier and this is an air mass that typhoons and tropical depressions hate,” he noted. According to Cruz, it can pack winds more than 60 kph, even stronger than a signal No. 1 condition.