MANILA, Philippines – A top Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) official on Tuesday said Cagayan de Oro City officials were warned as early as 2007 about the possibility of massive flooding in the river bank area, where many of the fatalities of tropical storm “Sendong” (international name: Washi) came from.

MGB Director Engr. Leo Jasareno said as early as 2007, the MGB had distributed geo-hazard maps to all Cagayan de Oro City officials which identified the river bank areas at high risk for flooding.

Jasareno added that even in the first quarter of the 2011, they met with CDO officials to warn them that the river bank areas, where many of the "Sendong" victims lived, are not suitable for habitation.

He lamented that residents and local officials did not heed their warning, resulting in the massive loss of lives.

“Naitndihan nila ang pinaliwanag namin. Kaya lang sa nangyaring sakuna, isang bagay ang nalaman namin - na ang mga kababayan natin ang attitude ay ‘to see is to believe,’” Jasareno told radio dzMM.

As of 6 a.m. Tuesday, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said the death toll from the storm is now at 957, with 49 still missing.

100-year flood cycle

Jasareno explained that the weekend flooding was part of a 100-year flood cycle.

He said based on MGB’s research, the same massive flooding took place in the area in 1916.

However, no one died from the deluge because of several factors such as the abundance of trees that could absorb flood waters, and a less dense population.

Jasareno said rampant cutting of trees along Cagayan river’s water tributaries and the small-scale mining activities along Iponan River have contributed to the silting of the main river system which had resulted in the massive flooding.

He added these activities had altered the normal flow of water in the river. The Macajalar Bay was supposed to catch rain water.

No habitation

Jasareno believes the relocation of all the residents along the river bank areas is the best solution to avert massive fatalities in the future.

He said in 2006, informal settlers living in the river sandbars requested the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) to formally declare the area as residential.

However, seeing that the area was not fit for habitation, Jasanero said the DENR did not grant their request.

These areas include Isla de Oro and Isla Delta. Jasareno explained these areas are actually part of the river system.

“Kaliwa’t kanan nagpapalala, dahil wala nang allowance sa tubig, kumbaga yung tubig, ginipit ng mga settlements,” Jasareno said.

Jasareno said another option to prevent flooding is engineering intervention, which includes dredging and construction of dikes.

If relocating the residents becomes impossible, Jasareno said setting up early warning systems for residents may be considered.

Flood-prone areas

Jasareno warned that flooding is expected to worsen in the future, especially for the flood-prone areas of Pampanga, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Bulacan, Nueva Viscaya, Metro Manila, Ilocos Sur, Maguindanao and Mindoro Oriental.

He said the likelihood of an Ondoy- or Sendong-type of flooding happening in the future is very high.

“Habang gumagalaw ang kamay ng orasan, lalong magiging matindi ang epekto [ng mga pagbaha]. Tulad ng population, dumadami ang bahay, dumadami ang obstructions sa ilog, lalong lalaki ang casualties at damage kapag walang solusyon,” he said.