MANILA, Philippines – While the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) admitted that it is difficult to forecast the Mount Mayon eruption, it noted that the volcano’s present activity is risky.

“The explosions will be the same or stronger, [it is] still a difficult thing to forecast. The hazardous eruption is possible,” Phivolcs Director Dr. Renato Solidum told “Dateline Philippines Sunday.”

“The current activity of volcano is dangerous as lava fragments are now being thrown out of the crater of the volcano and these would roll down the slopes of the volcano,” he said.

A total of 7 ash explosions accompanied by rumbling sounds were recorded Sunday morning. The lava fragments reached as high as 1 kilometer on Sunday morning, according to Solidum.

The Phivolcs director stressed that people should flee the danger zone because of the possibility of an eruption.

More than 47,000 people have already been evacuated, but reports noted that there are still some residents living within the danger zone.

“Mayon Volcano has been exploding since Sunday [December 20]. The stronger explosions can happen, but of course there is also the possibility that the next events will be similar to what we have seen previously,” continued Solidum.

“However, there were also observations that since Sunday, after we raised the alert level to 4 where explosions started, the explosions were increasing in terms of the height of ash columns and height of the lava fragments that are being thrown out,” he said.

Alert level 4 means there is intense unrest which poses threat of an imminent hazardous eruption. Alert level 4 is exhibited by persistent tremors, occurrence of many “low frequency”-type earthquakes, intense crater glow and incandescent lava fragments in the summit area.

The sulfur dioxide emission level may also show sustained increase or abrupt decrease.

Phivolcs also earlier warned that the Mayon, which boasts of a near-perfect cone, exhibits signs of calm before a major eruption.