President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's subsidy programs are not helping improve her low level of public support, according to the latest survey of an independent polling firm.

In a July 1-14 survey released Sunday, Pulse Asia found that 55% of Filipinos were beneficiaries of four major subsidy programs:

·    P18.25 per kilo National Food Authority (NFA) rice;
·    one-time P500 subsidy to Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) clients who consumed not more than 100-kilowatt hours in May;
·    "Food for School" program" wherein children in public elementary schools are given 1 kilo of rice every time they go to school;
·    P1,500 fertilizer subsidy to farmers. 

"However, despite the various efforts of the Arroyo administration to help poor Filipinos, it appears that President Arroyo is not getting much mileage from these subsidies as she registers basically the same performance and trust ratings among those who received at least one subsidy in the past quarter and those who did not," said Pulse Asia Executive Director Ana Maria Tabunda.

In the July 1-14 survey, Arroyo's performance ratings remained low with 48% disapproval and 22% approval, with 30 percent undecided. The ratings were basically the same as her ratings in March 2008.

Arroyo's trust ratings in the July 1-14 survey were 53% distrust and 19% trust, with 28% undecided, also almost the same rating as in March 2008.

When respondents were asked what they thought was the primary reason why the subsidies were being given by the Arroyo administration, the results were:

• 35% -- “part of the administration's politicking for 2010”;
• 30% -- “it is the responsibility of the government to give assistance such as these to the poor”;
• 24% -- “to help the poor especially during difficult times”;
• 10% -- “to avoid any possible conflicts in the country brought about by severe poverty”.

"As far as the government's primary reason for granting subsidies to the poor is concerned, almost the same percentages of Filipinos either believe that the Arroyo administration is doing this as part of its preparations for the May 2010 elections (35%) or say that it is the government's responsibility to provide some form of assistance to the poor (30%),” Tabunda said.

“For nearly a quarter (24%), these subsidies are being given by the government to help the poor particularly during difficult times while one in ten Filipinos thinks that by granting subsidies to the poor, any conflict arising from severe and widespread poverty in the country may be averted," she said. “Receipt (or non-receipt) of subsidies from government is not associated with the primary reason cited by Filipinos."

The July 1-14 nationwide survey of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above has a plus/minus 3% margin of error.

President Arroyo’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Monday will focus on the government’s social welfare programs, according to Palace officials.

Buying loyalty

Meawhile, in an interview with abs-cbnNEWS.com/Newsbreak, former Social Welfare and Development Secretary Corazon ‘Dinky’ Soliman said the Arroyo government’s subsidy programs, allegedly aimed at buying loyalty, are not working.

“She’s engaging the people in a process where, ‘I’m giving out money, I’m sharing with you the harvest of the VAT [Value-Added Tax].’ But it’s a way of I think, buying loyalty. And the people are not buying it,” she said. “As you can see in her [poll] ratings, even among the poor, even among those who are getting the P500 are getting it and saying, ‘We know what you’re trying to do.’” 

“She’s been trying to court the poor even during my time [at DSWD]. She’s still courting them. And up to know, they still don’t like her, regardless of what see does,” Soliman said.

This year, with the increases in world price of oil, projected VAT collections on oil is over P70 billion.

Using the proceeds from the expanded VAT on oil to fund subsidies has concerned several sectors since the law increasing oil taxes to 12 percentwas enacted in late 2005 to address a looming fiscal crisis then.

With higher tax collections, president Arroyo then promised that a balanced budget would be achieved by end-2008. However, with the subsidies aimed to combat a high inflation and lower economic growth environment this year, officials from Arroyo’s economic team have earlier announced that a budget deficit is likely to persist by the end of the year.

More subsidies

After the Pulse Asia survey, the Arroyo government announced a new set of subsidies are in store for the poor in addition to those already available.

P500 million has been allotted for senior citizens aged 75 years old and above not covered by the government-controlled pension funds, Government Service Insurance System and the Social Security System.

Another P500 million will be spent for the upgrading of government hospitals, while P1 billion would go to a microfinance program for the wives or immediate families of the drivers and conductors of public utility vehicles.

Sustainable welfare

Soliman said the cash-out subsidy programs should instead be spent in sustainable social welfare projects such as livelihood programs that work better in alleviating poverty.

“If you have P2 billion and you can work with half a million families, providing them this self-employment assistance program, in six months, you can alleviate them, even if it’s just selling barbeque or small sari-sari store,” Soliman said. 

She said the Department of Social Welfare and Development has a long tradition of these projects that work. “There is a huge amount of experience there that really they should listen to and acknowledge,” Soliman, Arroyo’s first social welfare secretary, said.

Soliman said Arroyo’s theme of social welfare in her SONA is intended to show that “they are able to address the needs of the majority of our people” and that “the gains from the VAT are well-used.”

“And because the gains of the VAT are well-used for the poor, then people should recognize the work that she’s doing. And I think the other important reason for her for focusing on the national social welfare is that she also is trying to find a way, in maybe working and focusing on the poor, would keep what little she support she has from the business community and from the church,” she said.

Fear of uprising

In a time of high oil and food prices, Soliman said President Arroyo’s subsidy program is also intended to help prevent a social uprising

“Well she’s afraid. You know, she has to buy loyalty now because her rating is way down, the lowest ever, and then the second is that deep in her mind and her cohorts’, it still is a fear that she could not last until 2010. I think that fear is still very real to her, and that’s why she’s trying so hard to curry favors to the poor,” she said.

Edsa 3 lesson

Soliman said Arroyo witnessed this force early in her term, on May 1, 2001, during the so-called Edsa 3, where around 100,000 supporters of ousted President Estrada and the Iglesia ni Cristo marched to Malacanang in a failed rebellion.

Since then, she said Arroyo has been trying to win over the support of the poor from Estrada, but she has so far failed.

She said the current subsidy programs are looking much like a political campaign since the goal “is to increase the image of a president who likes the poor, who loves the poor.”

“Because she’s watching the numbers and the numbers are showing that the icon of the poor, Erap, is gaining ground, and is in fact much higher than anyone, I think. So this is why she’s trying to be close to the poor,” Soliman said.

She said Arroyo’s advisers apparently believe this strategy will help keep Arroyo in power.

“The advice being given to her now is, as long as the poor are happy a bit, they will not have a big uprising or big rally, that’s okay,” Soliman said. “She knows, if there’s any one who will get angry, the biggest number is the poor, and that’s where the uprising will come.”