Manny Pacquiao with Freddie Roach.

MANILA, Philippines -- Boxing analyst Al Bernstein thinks 7-division champ Manny Pacquiao’s chances against Floyd Mayweather Jr. will depend on how he handles the first half of his fight against the undefeated American.

Bernstein, who was ESPN’s boxing commentator for many years and is now a fight analyst for Showtime Championship boxing, said Pacquiao would have to survive the first 5 rounds with Mayweather to get a chance of beating the former pound-for-pound king.

“If Pacquiao fights him, Mayweather is likely going to hit him with a big right hand in the first five rounds,” the analyst told Examiner.com.

Boxing fans are anticipating a showdown between the two pound-for-pound kings, whose planned super fight last March 13 was shelved because of disagreements over the type of drug testing they will use before the bout.

“If Manny Pacquiao doesn’t go down or get badly hurt, Manny Pacquiao is either going to beat Floyd Mayweather or he is going to make it such an exciting, hellacious fight that we are going to all be happy,” added Bernstein.

Pacquiao’s handler, Top Rank promotions chief Bob Arum, is working to forge a deal with the Mayweather camp for the mega fight planned on November 13.

The Filipino boxer, who just won a congressional seat in Sarangani province, has already agreed to the American fighter’s demand to have himself blood tested 14 days before the fight.

However, Mayweather’s camp has yet to issue a formal statement regarding Pacquiao’s decision.

Some observers believe the silence in Mayweather’s camp might be an indication that the negotiations are moving, and that the major players in the talks are keeping their meetings under wraps.

Berstein said Mayweather’s insistence on Olympic-style drug testing was just a strategy that got out of hand.

“I think it was just a ploy on the part of Floyd and his people that got out of hand. I think once they took that position, they couldn’t back off from it,” he said.