Today, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo will deliver her last State of the Nation Address, as required by the Constitution. The country has been caught in a SONA frenzy. Civil society and people’s organizations have been holding press conferences, issuing statements and delivering alternative SONAs. Activists have prepared posters, tarpaulins, and floats.

The PNP is fielding 12,000 policemen to keep the protesters at bay. Government agencies have been trumpeting their accomplishments in media.

Yesterday, Commonwealth Avenue bloomed with tarpaulins citing number of schools built and other projects. These were edged out by yellow ribbons and streamers from supporters of Cory Aquino which were put up as expressions of affection. However, the larger flood of tarpaulins, streamers and flags came from the Iglesia ni Kristo (INK) The flyovers were smothered by streamers with pictures of councilors, barangay captains, congressmen and city officials greeting the INK which is celebrating its anniversary today.

Beat the odds?

The economic targets of the government are formulated by the National Economic Development Authority (NEDA) which is chaired by the President. In 2005, GMA by her lonesome put together a list of targets whose first letters spelled out the acrostic “beat the odds.” These targets are: balanced budget, education for all, automated elections, transport and digital infrastructure, termination of hostilities, healing the wounds of EDSA 1,2, 3, electricity and water for all barangays, opportunities to create 6 to 10 million jobs, decongesting Metro . Manila, and develop Subic and Clark.

These targets do not include three crucial MDG goals—health, environment and gender equity. Attainment of these goals should be assessed from the governance framework: people’s participation, predictability, transparency and accountability. Without this framework, “beat the odds” is reduced to a mere statistical list.

Analysts, think tanks and media have been computing and calculating GMA’s accomplishments and rating her accordingly. GMA will likely state that the targets in the list have been achieved.

I will focus on three important issues: balanced budget, electricity and water for all barangays.

Balancing the budget. The term means exactly what it says. A budget is balanced when revenues (income) equals expenditures. When this target was announced, Social Watch Philippines immediately warned that a balanced budget may not necessarily be a good thing. During times of economic crisis, government has to spend more in order to stimulate the economy.

What is the record? From 2003 to 2008, the government chalked up deficit after deficit. At no point during GMA’s administration was zero deficit every attained.

While levels of deficit were reduced, these were not totally eliminated. In 2003, the deficit stood at a high of Ph199.868 billion By 2007, this had been brought down to Ph 12.441 billion. However in 2008, it shot up to Ph160.108 billion. By the end of 2009 the deficit is expected to rocket up to Ph 250 or even Ph300 billion .

Deficits caused by focused expenditures to create employment, alleviate poverty,make education available for all, reduce infant and maternal mortality, and keep the productive population healthy is welcome.

However, when expenditure increases are accompanied by increase in poverty, something is terribly wrong. It means that expenditures intended to stimulate the economy are either insufficient, untargeted, politically motivated or wasted in graft and corruption.

The fear is that high levels of deficit may not be sustained if unaccompanied by growth. Considering the enormity of the public debt, how can stratospheric levels of debt be funded further?

Electricity and water in every barangay. Electricity plays a major role in the attainment of development goals. It is generally equated with progress. Students are taught that provision of electricity will help reduce population growth because of the increase in the pace of economic and social activities

The provision of electricity is moving at a snail’s pace. I have been to one of the largest provinces in the Visayas. The capital of the province is still plagued with prolonged brownouts. Many municipalities are still blanketed in darkness come nightfall. How can this administration talk blithely of “digital infrastructure” when certain provinces are still “in the dark”?

One student reported that some small islands in Luzon still don’t have electricity. Another student reported that neither does a barangay in Navotas have electric power.

The situation on water is just as bad in many areas. Water means life not only for humans but for all living things.

In 2007, a survey identified 432 municipalities where more than 50% of the households don’t have access to water. Tubaran in Lanao del Sur tops the list with only .48% percent having access to water. It is followed by Turtle Islands in Tawi-tawi with.93%, Pangutaram, Sulu with .95% and Tandabas in Tawi-Tawi with .99%

Has GMA beaten the odds? No, she is beaten.