With presidential timber Mar Roxas stepping down in favor of Noynoy Aquino as the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate, the idea that history is repeating itself is throbbing in the popular imagination, generating excitement over an unanticipated change in the electoral landscape.

The sense of déjà vu was first sparked by the outpouring of people who paid their respect to Cory Aquino. Her death saw resurrected the images of the 1983 funeral march for Ninoy Aquino. Then there was the clamor from different groups and commentators for Noynoy to take on the presidency. Like a small detail in a film that adds color to the story,  Edgar Roces recast the the million-signature campaign that his father Chino initiated to convince Cory to run for president in the fateful snap election that led Marcos to exile. 

Also uncanny is the similarity in the concerns raised about Cory that are now levied against Noynoy -- mainly, his readiness, if not qualification, to become president.  There was Cory, the mere housewife, pushed to the forefront by widowhood. Here, now, Noynoy, the dutiful son and neophyte senator, similarly transformed into presidential material by orphanhood.  To these criticisms, the same line of counter-arguments:  Noynoy will unify the opposition (a chunk of it anyway);  Noynoy is offering  the moral leadership that the country needs most at this time.  And what better proof of the latter point than his reluctance to take on the onus of the presidency while so many others are breaking bones to have themselves proclaimed presidential candidate.

In 1985, Salvador “Doy”  Laurel stepped down as the United Nationalist Democratic Organization (UNIDO) presidential candidate in favor of Cory. Similarly, Mar abandoned his presidential campaign in the name of country and party unity.

Mar’s move was  a tacit acknowledgement that despite their equally illustrious political lineages, the star of destiny is shining more brightly on Noynoy. Translate that in the language of elections , it simply means that there is a better chance for Noynoy to win the presidency than for Mar. But whatever the pragmatic considerations involved, doing so was indeed a sacrifice on his part, a class act hardly seen among the political animals in our electoral jungle.  For his earlier sacrifice, Laurel is best remembered now. For this, Roxas too is now lauded. He is humbled, but not diminished.

Consequently, the 2010 electoral battle is shaping up to become mainly a contest between the Liberal Party and the Nacionalista Party, reminiscent of the pre-martial law, two-party electoral system. Who would have thought that these two parties, crushed to smithereens by Marcos through arrests and forced closure in 1972, dragged into oblivion during the heyday of the Kilusan ng Bagong Lipunan, minoritized by the turncoats to the LAKAS during Ramos’s time, and sidelined by the leviathan hold of the Gloria Macapagal Arroyo-Ronnie Puno  KAMPI-LAKAS’s clout over the Lower House and local governments in the last eight years, would emerge as the principal contenders for the presidency in 2010? 

And so, is history really, really repeating itself?

Not quite.

To begin with, the presidential contest will not be between Macapagal-Arroyo and the opposition (as in Cory versus Marcos) but among the candidates which excludes GMA. And there are several of them, although the going list of 15 aspirants will definitely be slashed. Nationalist People’s Coalition may yet field a candidate --  unless Danding Cojuangco puts his money in the campaign kitty of his nephew Noynoy.  Erap might still decide to run.

While many people are aghast at the depravity of the ruling family in the ethics department,  GMA’s and/or the LAKAS-KAMPI’s anointed will largely be carried by his own clout and appeal, and the strength of the coalition’s machinery and resources relative to that of the opposition parties. Should their standard bearer be someone like Noli de Castro who is doing well in the polls, the presidential election may yet be a three-cornered fight. 

This plurality dims the impact of the moral contrast to GMA that Noynoy’s candidacy supposedly highlights. To succeed, the moral contrast would have to be between Noynoy and the rest – Villar, de Castro, Erap, etc. And it would have to be transformed into a movement since party resources alone are not enough.  As Noynoy said, he will not stand a chance if his campaign were run traditionally. He already lost two years of head start enjoyed by the other more determined candidates. He can only sustain the momentum if there is a revival of the spirit of volunteerism that drives people to action in extraordinary times.

Equally important, Noynoy’s campaign would have to be better defined by a distinct, more elaborate policy agenda. Where does he and his party stand on the key issues of the day – governance, poverty, human rights, the armed conflicts, environment?  Otherwise, the glitter in his candidacy will be diffused by the multiplicity of candidates and their vague or indistinguishable platforms. The electoral exercise will remain at the level of personalities rather than program and vision.   Consequently, 2010 will just be another election-as-usual.

***

It seems now that presidential aspirants like Chiz Escudero and  Gilbert Teodoro  who rode on the smart, youthful appeal  of Obama as harbinger of change, have invested in the wrong image. Apparently, most Filipinos still draw on national history and domestic resources to fashion ideals of leadership. That’s why Noynoy, who looks painfully shy and older for his age but whose person has now become the repository of the legacy of the nation’s bout with dictatorship and struggle for democracy, has the edge for now.
 
E-mail: mcf178@yahoo.com