Philippine non-proliferation leadership role will need support - Mark Fitzpatrick
by Mark Fitzpatrick | 11/13/2009 1:20 AM
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The Republic of the Philippines has undertaken a historic leadership role through the selection of Ambassador Libran Cabactulan as president of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation (NPT) Treaty Review Conference next May. In this role, he will be representing not his own nation, but rather every nation. He shoulders the aspirations of a world that wants to rid itself of nuclear threats.
The NPT Review Conference (“RevCon”, in diplo-speak), will be an opportunity to rejuvenate and reinforce a treaty that has come under considerable strain. The greatest source of stress has been from states that violate their non-proliferation commitments, most notably North Korea and Iran. The NPT is also threatened by a perception that the nuclear-weapons states have not fulfilled their disarmament obligations. As a result, the consensus that used to prevail about the complementarity of the non-proliferation and disarmament goals broke down in recent years.
US President Barak Obama has rededicated America to the nuclear-free goal and he is pursuing concrete steps in this direction, including by negotiating a START follow-on treaty that will further reduce US and Russian nuclear arsenals, which are already down to a quarter of their Cold War heights. Great Britain led the way in re-stating the disarmament goal, and aligning its expertise for the nation to become a “disarmament laboratory”. France, for its part, rightly claims a strong record with regard to nuclear transparency and irreversible dismantlement, as President Nicolas Sarkozy laid out in his speech at Cherbourg in March 2008.
The attention that Obama and his allies are giving to disarmament steps represents the best chance in years to renew the NPT consensus. But success will require that others show similar will and sincerity.
One of Ambassador Cabactulan’s challenges is domestic. Will the Philippine Senate act in time to give him added moral authority by ratifying an NPT strengthening measure – called the Additional Protocol to the comprehensive safeguards agreement – that has languished since 1997, when the Philippines was one of the early signatories? While visiting Manila in early November, I was impressed by the vibrant democracy on display. One political scientist told me, however, that the Senate may not be able to act on the Additional Protocol ratification process because too many members are caught up in pre-campaigning and political jockeying associated with next year’s presidential election. But surely the political process should not preclude Senators from fulfilling their legislative duties.
Cabactulan’s greatest challenge is in the international arena. Can he join with Obama in bridging the North-South divide in the NPT, or will the 2010 RevCon fall victim to the kind of rancor that sank the 2005 meeting? Lack of US leadership that year is often blamed, but those present know that Iran and, to a lesser extent, Egypt were responsible for preventing any meaningful work. Egypt’s understandable preoccupation with Israel’s non-NPT status can perhaps be addressed this time through a spirit of mutual compromise and deft diplomacy. Iran’s intransigence, on the other hand, is unworthy of appeasement. Tehran is intent on doing everything possible to avoid censure for its NPT-related failures and a nuclear program that clearly seems intended to give it a weapons option. Why else would it have kept hidden yet one more enrichment facility, revealed only recently at Qom? Notwithstanding this latest transgression, Obama sought to build mutual confidence by proposing an exchange of Iran’s stockpile of low enriched uranium for fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor. Unfortunately, Iran has been unable to accept yes for an answer, even though it had agreed in principle in a meeting in Geneva on October 1 that included the most meaningful US-Iran bilateral discussion since the 1979 US embassy takeover.
Because the rules of the NPT RevCon process require consensus, Iran single-handedly can veto any outcome. If so, it must be made to bear the sole responsibility for failure. The Non-Aligned Movement should not succumb to Iran’s efforts to excuse its safeguards non-compliance. Individual NAM members should exercise their own veto power in the movement to reject any Iran-drafted NAM positions or statements that undermine efforts to strengthen the NPT.
In Southeast Asia, every state save Myanmar stands firmly on the side of nuclear transparency and adherence to non-proliferation norms. As an expression of this constancy and of ASEAN solidarity, Cabactulan should be able to count upon the support of his regional colleagues in promoting the strongest possible outcome of the 2010 NPT RevCon. When the meeting is over next May 28, let the world look back with satisfaction on its accomplishments and with gratitude for the staunch leadership of the Philippine presidency.
Mark Fitzpatrick is director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Program at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies and editor of the recently published IISS strategic dossier on Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast Asia and Australasia.
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